Sep 13, 2026 · 41 min · 16 segments
The election is 55 still days away, and it's looking like a tight one. And in the US the midterms are around the corner. America has a much bigger economy, and one that we have a lot of ties to. So…
Tim BeveridgeHost
Chris WilsonGuest
People do always comment that the elections and the outcomes of elections will have a huge impact on the economy.
What we tend to see is, you know, actually both parties, and certainly New Zealand, both parties, both main parties tend to be relatively... conservative with the fiscal policy and don't swing the bat too hard either way and so you know what that analogy what that means though is um you know we don't have those some of those same issues that you're seeing in the states at the moment around real concerns around government debt and real concerns because where that's and you know where that's important is that as those interest rates rise the cost of servicing your debt goes up that decreases the options you have in the future
So the voices on the fringes, and I don't mean that with any disrespect, you know what I mean, but the voices on the fringes being the smaller parties who've got some fairly radical, like we've got one party with the universal benefit for all and wealth taxes, and then there's the Greens with their tax policy, which might frighten a few horses.
Then you've got, who are the ones that want to nationalise, oh, that's the Greens again, who want to nationalise 15% of the supermarkets.
There are some areas where potentially government intervention is potentially going to come into play.
The other thing that does happen is when governments try to pick winners, you can have these things where the overall market may not be overly impacted, but there may be different companies or different sectors which are impacted in a greater way.
And so the one we're keeping an eye on for this election is impact and where gen tailors or any impact on gen tailors post the result.
And then also really infrastructure spending and how the government's approached infrastructure.
Is this election cycle any different to, you know, normally markets being driven by inflation and interest rates, et cetera, et cetera? Is this election throwing anything off kilter for any particular reason? No, I think...
No, I mean, New Zealand's in a relatively good position compared to globally on the amount of government debt we actually hold.
And so, you know, whilst there's concerns, it's not to the same level that you see in countries that have very high debt levels relative to GDP.
I think the concern would be if either party or whoever comes in on the day sort of changes that track and significantly starts to spend, I think we might start to see markets react to that.
You're getting this driver where actually it's not just the voters that are important, it's the people who buy their bonds.
People do always comment that the elections and the outcomes of elections will have a huge impact on the economy.
What we tend to see is, you know, actually both parties, and certainly New Zealand, both parties, both main parties tend to be relatively... conservative with the fiscal policy and don't swing the bat too hard either way and so you know what that analogy what that means though is um you know we don't have those some of those same issues that you're seeing in the states at the moment around real concerns around government debt and real concerns because where that's and you know where that's important is that as those interest rates rise the cost of servicing your debt goes up that decreases the options you have in the future
So the voices on the fringes, and I don't mean that with any disrespect, you know what I mean, but the voices on the fringes being the smaller parties who've got some fairly radical, like we've got one party with the universal benefit for all and wealth taxes, and then there's the Greens with their tax policy, which might frighten a few horses.
Then you've got, who are the ones that want to nationalise, oh, that's the Greens again, who want to nationalise 15% of the supermarkets.
There are some areas where potentially government intervention is potentially going to come into play.
The other thing that does happen is when governments try to pick winners, you can have these things where the overall market may not be overly impacted, but there may be different companies or different sectors which are impacted in a greater way.
And so the one we're keeping an eye on for this election is impact and where gen tailors or any impact on gen tailors post the result.
And then also really infrastructure spending and how the government's approached infrastructure.
Is this election cycle any different to, you know, normally markets being driven by inflation and interest rates, et cetera, et cetera? Is this election throwing anything off kilter for any particular reason? No, I think...
No, I mean, New Zealand's in a relatively good position compared to globally on the amount of government debt we actually hold.
And so, you know, whilst there's concerns, it's not to the same level that you see in countries that have very high debt levels relative to GDP.
I think the concern would be if either party or whoever comes in on the day sort of changes that track and significantly starts to spend, I think we might start to see markets react to that.
You're getting this driver where actually it's not just the voters that are important, it's the people who buy their bonds.
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