Lie Detectors Are Useless
Why polygraphs fail, according to Maria Konnikova
Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Nov 22, 2025 · 52 min · 22 segments
Most people are bad at spotting bluffs and tells – but there are ways to get better. Nate and Maria discuss tips and tricks from the poker table s with a live audience at Ludlow House in New York…
We're gonna be talking about reading people, the art of tells, deception, bluffing, and all, all of that fun stuff.
And after we kind of lay the groundwork, you guys better be paying really close attention because we'll be having people come up here to demonstrate how much you've learned about the art of reading people.
(laughs) So, Nate, um, you and I have just come back from Las Vegas where we were both playing in the North American Poker Tour.
Um, Nate, how- how are you at bluffing? How are you at bluffing in poker and how are you at bluffing in life, which might otherwise be known as lying?
I think I'm a pretty good bluffer in poker, both kind of understanding, like, the game theory behind when to bluff and also, like, kind of have a few tricks to, like, pull things off, right? Ironically, in like real life, I kind of, uh, I kind of am very bad at lying (laughs) in real life.
Um, but no, I get very uncomfortable with, you know, who is it, like, a lie takes too much work, right? And I'm lazy.
No, it's like even things, like, like so when I was hiring people at FiveThirtyEight when we were with, at, at Disney, right? Um, like, "Well, what's the, kind of the long-term stability of this company at the ABC News, ESPN?" I'd be like, "I don't really know.
You know, I'm under contract for a couple of years and we'll see what happens." And so, like, but I'm very comfortable, like, in any type of negotiation or relationship.
Um, like, I don't think it serves people, serves anyone a purpose in the long run to kind of, like, form a relationship on false pretenses.
Because it gets discovered later on, right? Um, no, so I'm an honest person mostly out of, like, laziness in real life.
But in the context of poker, um, you know, poker would not exist without bluffing.
Also, when people, you know, people ask you, "Oh, what did you have?" Right? Some people are like, oh, if you actually ask a question, they won't, like, literally lie.
We're gonna be talking about reading people, the art of tells, deception, bluffing, and all, all of that fun stuff.
And after we kind of lay the groundwork, you guys better be paying really close attention because we'll be having people come up here to demonstrate how much you've learned about the art of reading people.
(laughs) So, Nate, um, you and I have just come back from Las Vegas where we were both playing in the North American Poker Tour.
Um, Nate, how- how are you at bluffing? How are you at bluffing in poker and how are you at bluffing in life, which might otherwise be known as lying?
I think I'm a pretty good bluffer in poker, both kind of understanding, like, the game theory behind when to bluff and also, like, kind of have a few tricks to, like, pull things off, right? Ironically, in like real life, I kind of, uh, I kind of am very bad at lying (laughs) in real life.
Um, but no, I get very uncomfortable with, you know, who is it, like, a lie takes too much work, right? And I'm lazy.
No, it's like even things, like, like so when I was hiring people at FiveThirtyEight when we were with, at, at Disney, right? Um, like, "Well, what's the, kind of the long-term stability of this company at the ABC News, ESPN?" I'd be like, "I don't really know.
You know, I'm under contract for a couple of years and we'll see what happens." And so, like, but I'm very comfortable, like, in any type of negotiation or relationship.
Um, like, I don't think it serves people, serves anyone a purpose in the long run to kind of, like, form a relationship on false pretenses.
Because it gets discovered later on, right? Um, no, so I'm an honest person mostly out of, like, laziness in real life.
But in the context of poker, um, you know, poker would not exist without bluffing.
Also, when people, you know, people ask you, "Oh, what did you have?" Right? Some people are like, oh, if you actually ask a question, they won't, like, literally lie.
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3 of 6
Lie Detectors Are Useless
Why polygraphs fail, according to Maria Konnikova
Taco Bell Heist Confession
Nate's college taco heist comes clean today
Too Lazy To Lie
Bluffing champ struggles with everyday honesty admission
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