Sep 30, 2026 · 8 min · 7 segments
New York Fed President John Williams cools expectations for an October rate hike, saying there's no urgency to move again. Treasury yields end a bruising quarter higher as investors rethink the path…
Mike DolanHost
Anna SzymanskiHost
We obviously have energy prices continuing to stay elevated, many diesel prices at, again, record highs.
And lest we forget, we all recently learned that our entire species may be made extinct by AI in the next decade.
And I think maybe that's part of the story of the quarter as we head into the final stretch of 2026, the fourth quarter already.
The big story clearly was in the debt market fueled by that return of energy back above $100 by the end of September.
And of course, the Fed's Rate rise in September was, of course, the big policy event flagged briefly in Jackson Hole when Kevin Walsh did his keynote speech there in late August.
Just looking at the numbers on the list, you see the 10-year Treasury jumped 82 basis points during the third quarter, and that's the biggest rise in four years.
Back, if you remember, that post-Ukraine surge as interest rates were rising in 2022.
But of course, it's even longer or bigger milestones for other bond markets around the world, not least in Japan, where the quarterly jump in 10-year Japanese government bonds is the biggest in decades.
And we have a situation now where what the market priced for the Fed going forward, has it overcooked itself? Is there too much tightening now? built in because we have almost 100 basis points of additional Fed tightening over the next year.
We obviously have energy prices continuing to stay elevated, many diesel prices at, again, record highs.
And lest we forget, we all recently learned that our entire species may be made extinct by AI in the next decade.
And I think maybe that's part of the story of the quarter as we head into the final stretch of 2026, the fourth quarter already.
The big story clearly was in the debt market fueled by that return of energy back above $100 by the end of September.
And of course, the Fed's Rate rise in September was, of course, the big policy event flagged briefly in Jackson Hole when Kevin Walsh did his keynote speech there in late August.
Just looking at the numbers on the list, you see the 10-year Treasury jumped 82 basis points during the third quarter, and that's the biggest rise in four years.
Back, if you remember, that post-Ukraine surge as interest rates were rising in 2022.
But of course, it's even longer or bigger milestones for other bond markets around the world, not least in Japan, where the quarterly jump in 10-year Japanese government bonds is the biggest in decades.
And we have a situation now where what the market priced for the Fed going forward, has it overcooked itself? Is there too much tightening now? built in because we have almost 100 basis points of additional Fed tightening over the next year.
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