Three Weeks of Bad Data and One Orange Man

So we're talking about big transatlantic news stories.

That's what we talk about in the Trump Watch section.

uk political risk premium which we're paying for at the moment um make a field is probably the single word we should be using right now um and then we're going to translate some of this to what it means for your property portfolios or your areas that you're thinking about buying property in and all the rest of it so what does it matter in birmingham what does it matter in leeds what does it matter in london and all the rest of it right um ultimately oil is setting inflation expectations at the moment and that's falling through into what's happening in the interest rate right apart from anything else so here we go um bit of a health warning for last week's chris watkin data because we had the bank holiday of course so that was only four trading days instead of five but it's something i've got to lead with here ultimately and that is transactions have started to slow down in the uk property market folks we have had over the last three weeks now and I always say do not get overly excited about one week's figures I don't even get overly excited about one month's figures but part of the point of using real-time data is that you do start to let it inform you so I'll talk a bit to you about what I'm letting him for me to do right now but We're on three weeks' worth of data where transactions have dropped.

I'm talking about sold subject to contract, just to be clear.

I do have some pedantic people on my YouTube.

Sometimes you want deep levels of statistical modelling data and all the rest of it, and I don't blame them for that.

But also, it's got to be translatable and actionable stuff for everybody listening to this, not just for those of us who've got math, further maths, and advanced further maths, A-levels, and things like that.

So...

We're talking about a drop of about 9% in the last week, 2025 versus 2026.

Now, is that a fair comparison? It's one week's worth of activity, right? So maybe we don't get too excited about that.

Even the weather would make a difference in one week's worth of noise.

But this has been going on for about three weeks now, as I say.

So it's an early warning sign.

i'm not saying don't go and buy houses i'm not saying a crash is coming and all the rest of it but things have slowed down the last mortgage data we've got is from april the bank of england we actually had a pretty positive month on that front and we have 65 000 mortgage uh new mortgage offers approvals sorry which is pretty good my yardstick for the bottom end of a pretty stable market is about 65k mortgage offers it's actually our best print for about 10 months so it tells you we've been a little bit quieter why now and what's it all about right now i i struggle to see past the fact that it is related to the rise in the interest rate but what you would rightly say to me is it's early middle June at this point in time February the 28th was a date for Iran you always say Adam the swap rates move really quickly which they do they move in real time and we saw mortgage products getting pulled in the early weeks of March and I was saying look quick get on the wagon get you get your numbers in there get your get take your prices now and there was maybe a couple of weeks where you had time to grab those before the new product rates went up and out of control And now we're in a new world.

So why is that taking until June to start showing itself? Well, a lot of people who are in the market, many, many people, especially first-time buyers, are basically in a situation where they have to have a decision in principle from a mortgage lender, but they've effectively got a rate secured.

And what you might not realize if you're an investor, or you might not realize if you're a retail punter on the other side of the fence, the rules work differently.

You get a bit more rope.

If you're a residential retail buyer, normally about 90 days worth that you might have that decision in principle and that rate locked in for if you've if you've already submitted everything for your mortgage.

The banks do this because they kind of have to really.

People need certainty.

They don't want them to go.

Yeah, we'll give you this mortgage at four percent.

And that means, you know, that's what you would have been getting in February, maybe even three point seven five if you were lucky.

So now you can afford to borrow 400,000.

You've got 100,000 deposit.