What the Markets Say About the 2026 Midterms | Prediction Market Movers

Former Kalshi Head of Politics Jaron Zhou joins Chris Gerlacher on Prediction Market Movers to discuss how political prediction markets work, how they complement polling, and what they can reveal about the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential cycle. Jaron breaks down the practical role of prediction markets in politics, including election forecasting, hedging political risk, campaign resource allocation, candidate electability, market calibration, and interpreting probabilities. The conversation also examines the 2026 Senate map, why the Senate has moved toward a closer race, the Texas Senate contest, progressive candidates in Michigan and Wisconsin, anti-incumbency within both parties, what "moderate" really means to voters, and how prediction markets can help identify emerging political trends. Chris and Jaron also look ahead to 2028, including generational change in the Democratic Party, the potential impact of Trump on Republican candidates, the future of progressive versus moderate politics, and emerging political issues such as AI and data centers. 👉 Subscribe to *Prediction Market Movers* for weekly conversations with traders, legal experts, entertainers and industry insiders shaping the future of prediction markets.   For more information on the Prediction Edge and the upcoming midterms visit www.predictionedge.com   00:00 - Intro 1:20 - How Jaron landed at Kalshi 3:20 - Misconceptions of Prediction Markets and polling 6:35 - Life after Kalshi 7:15 - Uses of political markets 11:35 - Identifying darkhorse candidates 13:20 - Using markets to interpret election results 16:30 - Can prediction Market data changed your perspective on elections? 19:30 -Senate is in play for dems 22:50 - Talarico’s christian platform 26:00 - Progressive victories in Wisconsin and Michigan 32:30 - What does moderate mean for a swing voter? 36:00 - What could a democrat offer to the presidency? #PredictionMarketMovers #PredictionMarkets #JaronZhou #Kalshi #Election2026 #Midterms2026 #ElectionMarkets #PoliticalMarkets #PredictionMarkets2026 #2028Election #PoliticalForecasting #ElectionOdds #PredictionNews #KalshiPolitics #ElectionPrediction