Gathering threads: The stories defining the midterm elections

Daniel, you mentioned redistricting in Texas, and that has not sealed up the seats in Texas that Republicans were hoping for to give them up to a five-seat gain.

It doesn't mean they won't get those seats, but they're not layups like they thought they would be.

And we're seeing this kind of almost across the board, even in Florida, which did a very aggressive redistricting this year.

People like Jared Moskowitz, who's in like a it's like a trump plus nine or trump plus 10 district he's i mean he's in a i think it's a toss-up race but he you know i mean like it hasn't worked in the way that a lot of the um a lot of the people pushing these maps had envisioned there are some there are some republican there will be some republican gains in alabama likely in louisiana but it's not a given that after the court cases have like played out and, and even the dynamics that redistricting is this is, is going to give Republicans this huge advantage.

Yeah.

There's two, uh, democratic incumbents, uh, that the Republicans have been trying for years, decades, I think in one case, certainly, uh, Marcy captor in Ohio and Don Davis in North Carolina, both of their districts became much redder after this redistricting.

And, um, You know, it's tough.

We don't really have good polling in in-house races, so it's really tough to say.

But certainly both of those races, you can you can say without having any poll numbers at your disposal, both of those races are extremely competitive.

They're not locked up for the for the Republicans.

And, you know, maybe, you know, in some ways they should be.

I mean, neither of them.

went super, super red.

But, you know, that Ohio district did get, pick up some more Trump voters and the same in North Carolina.

So the fact that those are still very much in play and neither side can count on anything there, it tells you that, you know, this whole gambit, you know, was definitely a risk.

Now, you know, you can point to Texas and clearly they've already won some things in Texas because there's several incumbents that are no longer running because they were completely drawn out of their districts.

So, you know, it's not the case where it was a total loss.

You know, same can be said on the Democratic side in California.

And there's a member on member race there in Southern California that, you know, one of those two

Republican young Kim, Kevin, Ken Calvert in Palm Springs.

Yeah.

So that one, certainly one of them will lose guaranteed because they're the only two people on the ballot in November.

So, you know, And we'll see at the end when everything's all said and done and the dust has settled, you know, which party came out ahead in this whole process.

But certainly no slam dunks, really, which is a little surprising.

Oh, I was just going to say, it's certainly possible for Republicans to still come out ahead in this when you're looking at the numbers.

Daniel, you mentioned redistricting in Texas, and that has not sealed up the seats in Texas that Republicans were hoping for to give them up to a five-seat gain.

It doesn't mean they won't get those seats, but they're not layups like they thought they would be.

And we're seeing this kind of almost across the board, even in Florida, which did a very aggressive redistricting this year.

People like Jared Moskowitz, who's in like a it's like a trump plus nine or trump plus 10 district he's i mean he's in a i think it's a toss-up race but he you know i mean like it hasn't worked in the way that a lot of the um a lot of the people pushing these maps had envisioned there are some there are some republican there will be some republican gains in alabama likely in louisiana but it's not a given that after the court cases have like played out and, and even the dynamics that redistricting is this is, is going to give Republicans this huge advantage.

Yeah.

There's two, uh, democratic incumbents, uh, that the Republicans have been trying for years, decades, I think in one case, certainly, uh, Marcy captor in Ohio and Don Davis in North Carolina, both of their districts became much redder after this redistricting.

And, um, You know, it's tough.

We don't really have good polling in in-house races, so it's really tough to say.

But certainly both of those races, you can you can say without having any poll numbers at your disposal, both of those races are extremely competitive.

They're not locked up for the for the Republicans.

And, you know, maybe, you know, in some ways they should be.

I mean, neither of them.

went super, super red.

But, you know, that Ohio district did get, pick up some more Trump voters and the same in North Carolina.

So the fact that those are still very much in play and neither side can count on anything there, it tells you that, you know, this whole gambit, you know, was definitely a risk.

Now, you know, you can point to Texas and clearly they've already won some things in Texas because there's several incumbents that are no longer running because they were completely drawn out of their districts.

So, you know, it's not the case where it was a total loss.

You know, same can be said on the Democratic side in California.

And there's a member on member race there in Southern California that, you know, one of those two

Republican young Kim, Kevin, Ken Calvert in Palm Springs.

Yeah.

So that one, certainly one of them will lose guaranteed because they're the only two people on the ballot in November.

So, you know, And we'll see at the end when everything's all said and done and the dust has settled, you know, which party came out ahead in this whole process.

But certainly no slam dunks, really, which is a little surprising.

Oh, I was just going to say, it's certainly possible for Republicans to still come out ahead in this when you're looking at the numbers.