Double flood threat

It's Wednesday, August 19th, and sure enough, we have another heavy rainfall setting up for the area for tomorrow in what has been... a quite wet and humid summer, largely courtesy of this El Nino that we've got raging.

So, tomorrow's setup is going to be similar to ones that we've seen this season.

We've got a trough over the northeast and, yet again, a cold front.

And cold fronts, this summer at least, have had this habit of of slowing down and stalling either overhead or just offshore.

And so we're going to see that front move in tonight, stall overhead.

It's going to get very humid.

We're looking at precipitable water values up around 2 inches.

So looking for a wave of low pressure to form along that frontal boundary, with a short wave swinging through that trough.

So long story short, we're looking for showers and thunderstorms really area-wide starting around 4 p.m. and going on until about 2 a.m. Friday morning.

So we've got convergence along this boundary, a jet streak aloft, And those precipitable water values.

So most places are going to wind up with anywhere from half an inch to two inches of rain.

Locally, some places might see a little more, maybe up to three.

So certainly could be some flash flooding.

And the best chances for those would be in the further south and west you go.

So Staten Island, Brooklyn, southern Queens, and southern Nassau, at least as it stands now.

It looks like the brunt of the rain is going to come at the beginning of of this event so that rush hour commute tomorrow depending on how this times out is looking like a rough one now We'll get a little break in the precipitation.

But we're still going to have a trough over the east.

And we're still going to have a front offshore.

So we're expecting another wave of low pressure to track along it.

And the Weather Prediction Center has us tomorrow in a 2 out of 4 risk.

for marginal excessive rainfall.

And they're also indicating a slight chance on Saturday.

So for tomorrow, highs will be in the low to mid 80s, given that the rain is going to arrive tomorrow.

Late in the day, as for Friday, temperatures will be confined mostly to the upper 70s because clouds will be around throughout the day.

Now, as we said, the weekend is looking a little dicey also, particularly Saturday.