Another summer delude

It's Saturday, September 12th, and sure enough, as we last discussed, we have another rain event getting ready to move in very late tonight into Sunday morning.

And this is going to be much like other events we've seen this summer.

We're going to have a whole panoply of of weather hazards.

So weather service has a flood watch in effect for the entire area.

It lasts a little longer across Nassau and Suffolk than it does across the five boroughs.

So we're going to have a short wave pass to our north tonight and we'll have a warm front move through So we're going to see a big surge up the East Coast of very moist air and high dew points.

And precipitable water values are likely to exceed about 2.3 inches.

So we're also going to have a jet streak aloft.

We're looking for torrential flooding downpours tomorrow morning.

And of course, the prediction center has the entire area in a slight risk, that's a 2 out of 4.

The time frame is from around 5 a.m. to about 2 p.m., although the worst of it is from about 7 to 11.

And that's when we may see 1 to 3 inch per hour rainfall rates.

So we're looking for a widespread 1 to 3 inches of rainfall with locally up to 4 inches in spots.

Looks like this particular system is taking aim in particular on Suffolk for the highest rainfall rates and totals.

So it's going to be a lot like a flood event that we experienced a few weeks ago.

But...

This time around, the only thing that's not on the table is the tornadoes.

Now, isolated showers and thunderstorms are going to linger for the rest of the day.

We'll be in the warm sector.

Then we've got Another batch of scattered showers and storms late Sunday night into Monday morning with the antecedent cold front.

So tomorrow high temperatures are going to be right around seasonable or maybe a degree or two above upper 70s to low 80s.

But it is going to be humid.

Now, behind this system, though, we do expect drier air to move in.

So, Monday will start out maybe with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, but we'll clear out quickly in the afternoon.

And highs will be down in the mid-70s with falling dew points.