Fish n' Bits - The Aquaculture Data Intelligence Podcast
Jun 15, 2026 · 8 min · 8 segments
What happens when El Niño tightens the supply of fish oil just as salmon markets and global shipping are already under pressure? A newly confirmed El Niño in the tropical Pacific is putting renewed…
As of June eleventh, NOAA's National Weather Service officially announced that El Nino has developed in the tropical Pacific.
As it stands today, there's a sixty-three percent chance that this particular El Nino could develop into a very strong event based on the strength rating used for the weather system.
As I mentioned before, most oceanographers and much of the seafood industry were already aware that this was likely going to happen, but the question was when.
Every few years we see an El Nino develop, and the last one was in twenty twenty-three, so we are right in that window for the next one.
The official diagnosis has arrived a little bit ahead of schedule, however, so this is not new for the industry, but the potential strength rating is something that we really want to pay particular attention to, and that's because the impact on aquaculture comes when more serious El Nino reaches these very strong gradings.
A very strong El Nino is designated when sea surface temperatures are more than two degrees above normal.
And in my research, when these very strong El Ninos hit, one of the biggest aquaculture impacts comes from the Peruvian anchovies fisheries.
Each time we've seen major pressure on anchovies harvest in the seasons that's followed.
A few times, like in the nineteen seventies and nineteen eighties, these very strong events contributed to serious declines across the fishery.
This helps preserve the fishery, but it also creates a strong supply delay for much of the aquaculture industry that still needs to feed its fish.
As an industry, the Peruvian anchovies fishery supplies a majority share of the world's fish meal and fish oil.
So when millions of tons of raw material are reduced, delayed, or taken offline, the industry can really feel it.
And as of June eleventh, the Peruvian government has already extended fishing restrictions due to concerns around juvenile fish in warmer conditions.
Now, when it comes to aquaculture, the impacts are already actually becoming visible.
In an article published by Ilox just last week, fish oil prices were reported to be almost at sixty-eight hundred dollars per ton, and that's already up from four thousand dollars per ton that was recorded earlier this year.
These increases are happening before we have even seen the full impact of the El Nino this time around.
As of June eleventh, NOAA's National Weather Service officially announced that El Nino has developed in the tropical Pacific.
As it stands today, there's a sixty-three percent chance that this particular El Nino could develop into a very strong event based on the strength rating used for the weather system.
As I mentioned before, most oceanographers and much of the seafood industry were already aware that this was likely going to happen, but the question was when.
Every few years we see an El Nino develop, and the last one was in twenty twenty-three, so we are right in that window for the next one.
The official diagnosis has arrived a little bit ahead of schedule, however, so this is not new for the industry, but the potential strength rating is something that we really want to pay particular attention to, and that's because the impact on aquaculture comes when more serious El Nino reaches these very strong gradings.
A very strong El Nino is designated when sea surface temperatures are more than two degrees above normal.
And in my research, when these very strong El Ninos hit, one of the biggest aquaculture impacts comes from the Peruvian anchovies fisheries.
Each time we've seen major pressure on anchovies harvest in the seasons that's followed.
A few times, like in the nineteen seventies and nineteen eighties, these very strong events contributed to serious declines across the fishery.
This helps preserve the fishery, but it also creates a strong supply delay for much of the aquaculture industry that still needs to feed its fish.
As an industry, the Peruvian anchovies fishery supplies a majority share of the world's fish meal and fish oil.
So when millions of tons of raw material are reduced, delayed, or taken offline, the industry can really feel it.
And as of June eleventh, the Peruvian government has already extended fishing restrictions due to concerns around juvenile fish in warmer conditions.
Now, when it comes to aquaculture, the impacts are already actually becoming visible.
In an article published by Ilox just last week, fish oil prices were reported to be almost at sixty-eight hundred dollars per ton, and that's already up from four thousand dollars per ton that was recorded earlier this year.
These increases are happening before we have even seen the full impact of the El Nino this time around.
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