Fish n' Bits - The Aquaculture Data Intelligence Podcast
Aug 31, 2026 · 11 min · 7 segments
How high could fishmeal and fish oil prices go if Peru faces another major anchovy shortage? We're taking a closer look at the developing El Niño, Peru's anchovy fishery, and what tightening marine…
First off, and probably the most important, let's talk about the price of fish meal and fish oil and where that's already heading.
Speaking with different people across the industry, I think one of the major surprises has just been how quickly prices have jumped over the last few months.
In data presented through the Maritime Ingredients Organization, or EFO, The price of aquaculture-specific fish oil hovered around $4,000 per ton and then sharply started to rise around May of this year, reaching over $10,000 per ton over the last few weeks.
This rise is interesting because it happened probably a little sooner than most people envisioned at the time, simply because El Nino had only just started.
Even though there was still volume on the market, the price was rising quite quickly.
But this has brought up a lot of questions around where the price of fish oil and fish meal will actually go in the coming months and quarters.
To analyze that question, What I wanted to see was how this price evolution compares with historical shortages in declines in global fish oil supply.
What I found was simply how much of an outlier the previous El Nino event back in 2023 was for the overall price of fish oil.
During those months, following the cancellation of the quota in the first half of the fishing season in 2023, prices of exported fish oil reached almost $12,000 per ton.
Now, all of this product didn't get used specifically in aquaculture, but the spike we're looking at was something we had never seen before.
Otherwise, as you look back in time, the price of fish oil mostly remained between $2,000 and $4,000 per ton between the years of 2012 and 2022.
And that was the case even as the region saw very similar patterns with catch volume and the impact of El Nino.
Back in 2014, the region actually saw a much more severe El Nino rating, which, much like 2023, resulted in the cancellation of one of the fishing seasons.
The second half of the season in 2014 was canceled, and the total catch volume for the entire year ended up around 1.7 million tons.
In 2023, with the most recent El Nino, The total annual catch value was similarly low at 1.3 million tons after the first half of the season was canceled.
While the impact on the fishery was similar between those years, the result in fish oil prices was almost a completely different story.
During the peak of El Nino in the months following the lack of harvest in 2014, prices moved but nothing in comparison to what we saw in 2023.
First off, and probably the most important, let's talk about the price of fish meal and fish oil and where that's already heading.
Speaking with different people across the industry, I think one of the major surprises has just been how quickly prices have jumped over the last few months.
In data presented through the Maritime Ingredients Organization, or EFO, The price of aquaculture-specific fish oil hovered around $4,000 per ton and then sharply started to rise around May of this year, reaching over $10,000 per ton over the last few weeks.
This rise is interesting because it happened probably a little sooner than most people envisioned at the time, simply because El Nino had only just started.
Even though there was still volume on the market, the price was rising quite quickly.
But this has brought up a lot of questions around where the price of fish oil and fish meal will actually go in the coming months and quarters.
To analyze that question, What I wanted to see was how this price evolution compares with historical shortages in declines in global fish oil supply.
What I found was simply how much of an outlier the previous El Nino event back in 2023 was for the overall price of fish oil.
During those months, following the cancellation of the quota in the first half of the fishing season in 2023, prices of exported fish oil reached almost $12,000 per ton.
Now, all of this product didn't get used specifically in aquaculture, but the spike we're looking at was something we had never seen before.
Otherwise, as you look back in time, the price of fish oil mostly remained between $2,000 and $4,000 per ton between the years of 2012 and 2022.
And that was the case even as the region saw very similar patterns with catch volume and the impact of El Nino.
Back in 2014, the region actually saw a much more severe El Nino rating, which, much like 2023, resulted in the cancellation of one of the fishing seasons.
The second half of the season in 2014 was canceled, and the total catch volume for the entire year ended up around 1.7 million tons.
In 2023, with the most recent El Nino, The total annual catch value was similarly low at 1.3 million tons after the first half of the season was canceled.
While the impact on the fishery was similar between those years, the result in fish oil prices was almost a completely different story.
During the peak of El Nino in the months following the lack of harvest in 2014, prices moved but nothing in comparison to what we saw in 2023.
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