FBGT - Fantasy Baseball Game Theory
Oct 10, 2026 · 44 min · 12 segments
This episode looks back on the category outlooks from January 2026, checking to see how our projections from the time lined up with the 2026 season results as a whole. We also look at year over year…
We're gonna jump right into it as we continue our look back on the category outlooks, like I said, uh, this time with pitcher.
And pardon the cross-sport comparison that I think only RotoGut Vlad Sedlar will appreciate.
I wrote down in my prep for this episode that pitchers are a little bit like goalies in hockey.
They're weird as hell, fickle from one year to the next, and absolutely paramount to your success as a team.
You've got one that is weirdly luck-based in wins, one that is entirely role-based in saves, and then, of course, K's, one of the most prolific things a pitcher can do while he's on the mound.
There's really interesting lists of players that popped off this year, players who fell off this year.
It's the most important thing to say is you take away from this what you wanna take away from this, what you think is gonna be impactful for your prep entering 2027 the most.
If you listened last week, you can put this on 5-times speed and make me sound like one of those, uh, car ads at the end of the ad.
So we're revisiting an episode from late January last year, where we took the ADP and the current projections to create groupings of players every 50 picks that were projected to surpass the 80% threshold for NFBC 12s and 15s combined.
Basically, how many players in each ADP pocket might hit, uh, 153 K's, I think, was the number, or 12 saves, uh, all the way down the line in each category? And I'll talk about what that benchmark was, and we'll go through all those pockets.
We're also gonna look at kind of a three-year look back and, uh, the trends of the, of the category at large, um, within the league.
And like I said last week, I don't have the exact ADP I used when I conducted this exercise last January, nor do I have the exact projec- the exact projection sets as they were when I recorded this episode in January last year.
We're gonna jump right into it as we continue our look back on the category outlooks, like I said, uh, this time with pitcher.
And pardon the cross-sport comparison that I think only RotoGut Vlad Sedlar will appreciate.
I wrote down in my prep for this episode that pitchers are a little bit like goalies in hockey.
They're weird as hell, fickle from one year to the next, and absolutely paramount to your success as a team.
You've got one that is weirdly luck-based in wins, one that is entirely role-based in saves, and then, of course, K's, one of the most prolific things a pitcher can do while he's on the mound.
There's really interesting lists of players that popped off this year, players who fell off this year.
It's the most important thing to say is you take away from this what you wanna take away from this, what you think is gonna be impactful for your prep entering 2027 the most.
If you listened last week, you can put this on 5-times speed and make me sound like one of those, uh, car ads at the end of the ad.
So we're revisiting an episode from late January last year, where we took the ADP and the current projections to create groupings of players every 50 picks that were projected to surpass the 80% threshold for NFBC 12s and 15s combined.
Basically, how many players in each ADP pocket might hit, uh, 153 K's, I think, was the number, or 12 saves, uh, all the way down the line in each category? And I'll talk about what that benchmark was, and we'll go through all those pockets.
We're also gonna look at kind of a three-year look back and, uh, the trends of the, of the category at large, um, within the league.
And like I said last week, I don't have the exact ADP I used when I conducted this exercise last January, nor do I have the exact projec- the exact projection sets as they were when I recorded this episode in January last year.
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