FBGT - Fantasy Baseball Game Theory
Oct 2, 2026 · 47 min · 9 segments
This episode loooks back on the category outlooks from January 2026, checking to see how our projections from the time lined up with the 2026 season results as a whole. We also look at year over year…
We're revisiting the episode that I recorded in late January of last year where we took ADP and current projection sets to create groupings of players every 50 picks or so that were projected to surpass the 80% threshold for NFBC 12s and 15s combined.
In other words, how many players in each ADP pocket might hit 23 home runs or reach 75 runs or have an average that was at or above 257 all the way down the list? I took the final results and dollar values from fan graphs, player raters for 12s, and I compared them to some ADP data that I had from roughly the exact same time.
I do not have the exact ADP that I used when I conducted this exercise, nor do I have that exact projection set that I used when we recorded that episode.
I did not have the foresight to think that I was going to be revisiting this episode that at that time.
But that being said, the data that I'm using is roughly from the same times right around early February.
At the end of the day, we're going to attempt to see how accurate each stat projection and pocket was.
I also took the opportunity to look at the categories as a whole while I was in there over a three-year league-wide trend, just to see what we might be able to learn from that while we were talking about category outlooks as a whole.
And then just a little bit more context off the top, just to keep this moving when we get into it.
The overall theme that I found is that the projections generally over-promised and under-delivered relative to the ADP.
But it sort of makes sense when you think about it because the odds of everyone being healthy are impossible.
And there's always going to be guys that fall off and others that emerge from seemingly out of nowhere, whether it's a rookie or a 28-year-old journeyman who finally finds his footing.
We're revisiting the episode that I recorded in late January of last year where we took ADP and current projection sets to create groupings of players every 50 picks or so that were projected to surpass the 80% threshold for NFBC 12s and 15s combined.
In other words, how many players in each ADP pocket might hit 23 home runs or reach 75 runs or have an average that was at or above 257 all the way down the list? I took the final results and dollar values from fan graphs, player raters for 12s, and I compared them to some ADP data that I had from roughly the exact same time.
I do not have the exact ADP that I used when I conducted this exercise, nor do I have that exact projection set that I used when we recorded that episode.
I did not have the foresight to think that I was going to be revisiting this episode that at that time.
But that being said, the data that I'm using is roughly from the same times right around early February.
At the end of the day, we're going to attempt to see how accurate each stat projection and pocket was.
I also took the opportunity to look at the categories as a whole while I was in there over a three-year league-wide trend, just to see what we might be able to learn from that while we were talking about category outlooks as a whole.
And then just a little bit more context off the top, just to keep this moving when we get into it.
The overall theme that I found is that the projections generally over-promised and under-delivered relative to the ADP.
But it sort of makes sense when you think about it because the odds of everyone being healthy are impossible.
And there's always going to be guys that fall off and others that emerge from seemingly out of nowhere, whether it's a rookie or a 28-year-old journeyman who finally finds his footing.
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