Nobel Prize, Meatball & scandals 101 | Nick Reynolds & Haakon Gjerløw

Um, okay, so the first thing we're gonna cover today is, um, that midterms beat.

There seems to be no end to it.

Uh, we've been tracking how many races now? It seems like everywhere a Republican is running, there's some sharks circling.

Um, before we go to South Carolina, Prateek, do you wanna just make like a blanket declaration about how deep you're willing to go, um, trading against Republicans? Or are you gonna sit here and, and say this is a hype machine?

No, I, uh...

And I would urge people to check out our website.

Um, Doug Campbell has a great piece precisely on this question.

Um, the ELDR as he's expecting a, a massive blowout, uh, for the Democrats.

So yeah, I think, um, I think these kinds of news cycles are great because you can definitely look for maybe where the outer edge of the blue wave reaches, maybe pick up some lottos.

But it also creates opportunities to bet on underpriced Republicans.

So, uh, yeah, we'll, we'll get into this I'm sure, but-

Yeah.

So, so I, I think, like, the, like, the narrative of what we're gonna be doing for the next few weeks is trying to figure out, um, you know, which is which.

So, like, what is the opportunity to, to make the bet on the very obvious, you know, the day after the election people will say, "Of course Roger Marshall wasn't gonna lose," or, "Of course Darlene wasn't gonna lose." And, um, what is the opportunity to really grasp, um, how surprising these wave cycles can be? Um, because if you, if you study 2006, 2018, 2010, I mean, there, there's just a thick list of people that no one thought could lose and, and they lose quite often.

Yeah, yeah.

I, I agree.

Um, and I, I will just say at a high level that I think that in some of these recent elections the really outlier wave scenarios did not emerge because-

Yeah

...

I think people did not factor in the extent to which partisan identity is baked in.

But I, I mean, if we, if there's an election cycle in recent memory where we could really break out of that, I think a lot of the dynamics are looking like they're here this time around.

Um, okay.

So we're gonna cover that in depth in South Carolina very soon.

Um, before we do that, did, have you been watching the, um, very boring but also, uh, at times very exciting Senate and governor's debates that have been happening this week? Um, 'cause I have some, some notes for the candidates.

Uh, I did watch them because, or I watched part of them anyway because it was my homework for Eventual.

Um, okay, so the first thing we're gonna cover today is, um, that midterms beat.

There seems to be no end to it.

Uh, we've been tracking how many races now? It seems like everywhere a Republican is running, there's some sharks circling.

Um, before we go to South Carolina, Prateek, do you wanna just make like a blanket declaration about how deep you're willing to go, um, trading against Republicans? Or are you gonna sit here and, and say this is a hype machine?

No, I, uh...

And I would urge people to check out our website.

Um, Doug Campbell has a great piece precisely on this question.

Um, the ELDR as he's expecting a, a massive blowout, uh, for the Democrats.

So yeah, I think, um, I think these kinds of news cycles are great because you can definitely look for maybe where the outer edge of the blue wave reaches, maybe pick up some lottos.

But it also creates opportunities to bet on underpriced Republicans.

So, uh, yeah, we'll, we'll get into this I'm sure, but-

Yeah.

So, so I, I think, like, the, like, the narrative of what we're gonna be doing for the next few weeks is trying to figure out, um, you know, which is which.

So, like, what is the opportunity to, to make the bet on the very obvious, you know, the day after the election people will say, "Of course Roger Marshall wasn't gonna lose," or, "Of course Darlene wasn't gonna lose." And, um, what is the opportunity to really grasp, um, how surprising these wave cycles can be? Um, because if you, if you study 2006, 2018, 2010, I mean, there, there's just a thick list of people that no one thought could lose and, and they lose quite often.

Yeah, yeah.

I, I agree.

Um, and I, I will just say at a high level that I think that in some of these recent elections the really outlier wave scenarios did not emerge because-

Yeah

...

I think people did not factor in the extent to which partisan identity is baked in.

But I, I mean, if we, if there's an election cycle in recent memory where we could really break out of that, I think a lot of the dynamics are looking like they're here this time around.

Um, okay.

So we're gonna cover that in depth in South Carolina very soon.

Um, before we do that, did, have you been watching the, um, very boring but also, uh, at times very exciting Senate and governor's debates that have been happening this week? Um, 'cause I have some, some notes for the candidates.

Uh, I did watch them because, or I watched part of them anyway because it was my homework for Eventual.