Modeling secrets, Florida & inflation | Eli Mckown-Dawson

**The House battlefield keeps expanding.** Democrats are spending deeper into Republican territory, sending Alex and Brian hunting for overlooked House races where a broader wave could create long-shot opportunities. **Inside Nate Silver’s election model.** Silver Bulletin’s Eli McKown-Dawson explains how FLIPR weighs polls, fundamentals, candidate quality and expert ratings—and why unusual model outputs can reveal something real rather than a mistake. **Florida may resist the national trend.** Blitz pushes back on the closest Florida polls, arguing that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody remain better positioned than the most competitive surveys suggest despite a much tougher national environment for Republicans. **Election night is its own trading discipline.** Alex and Brian favor exploiting overreactions and incomplete early returns while warning that hyper-specific margin markets can become extremely difficult when hundreds of races are moving simultaneously. **Eventual gets its own midterm trading dashboard.** Mark Davis unveils a new tool combining Polymarket prices, polling averages, forecaster ratings, fundraising and election simulations to quickly surface divergences and potential value across the map.   Alex and Brian start with Brian’s newfound fame as Bloomberg profiles his inflation trading, then dig into the expanding House battlefield, the districts Democrats are suddenly spending in, and the election-night strategies traders should be thinking about before November. How much can Florida tell us early? Are margin markets worth the adverse-selection risk? And which races could reveal a blue wave before the rest of the country catches up? Then Eli McKown-Dawson joins to take us inside FLIPR, the election forecasting model he works on with Nate Silver. We talk candidate quality, polling misses, non-response bias, late movement and what happens when the model disagrees with your instincts. Florida election savant Steve “Blitz” stops by to break down the Sunshine State, including whether Democrats are being underestimated in the governor and Senate races. Finally, prediction-market OG Mark Davis unveils the new Eventual election trading dashboard — combining prediction-market prices, polling averages, fundraising, handicappers and thousands of simulated elections into one place. Mark walks through Senate seat distributions, potential value in margin markets, vulnerable incumbents and how traders can use the tool to hunt for mispriced races. Sponsored segment:  Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us. Disclaimer: Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction. If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information.   *The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.* *For Polymarket US users:* *18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See* polymarket.com/tos *for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.*