Election horror show, NFL vs PMs & Guilfoyle’s peril

So, uh, first up, we have to talk about football, all right? So, um, I'm reading a tweet from CNBC here that slugged, "NFL tells Supreme Court prediction markets are gambling and should be regulated by the states." And then, uh, we of course double-clicked on that.

That gets our attention.

And, uh, in the piece the author writes, quote, "In an amicus brief supporting the New Jersey regulators in their battle against Kalshi, the National Football League argues sports prediction contracts are effectively gambling, not financial swaps." Um, what's the trade here, Domer?

Yeah.

It's, it, it-- You know, the NFL is not, [laughs] not a good enemy to have.

You know? If the NFL shows up as a villain in a movie, it's not gonna end well for the good guy probably.

So I mean, I think, I think sports are looking in somewhat dire shape.

I mean, the, the optimistic angle is that the judges on the Supreme Court will probably be partial towards, uh, the Kalshi and Polymarket arguments that we should keep sports.

But you know, if, if the NFL is kinda, you know, an 800-pound gorilla that's kinda weighing in on the side of, um, you know, against prediction markets on sports, that's not a good thing I don't think.

It does make me wonder if this is also the NFL just sort of seeing where the wind is coming from and trying to, trying to make their own bet.

Um, or, uh...

I mean, I, I don't know.

I do-- I would just think they're a very savvy organization, that they, they, they, they see where they need to be for their own interests, and they're just gonna join the pile on now.

Yeah.

Well, I mean, the, the other, the other piece of background information is I think they sent a letter, uh, that was, like, outlining what they want prediction markets to do, and it was like, "Stop doing announcing bets," and, "Stop doing X, Y, and Z." And I don't think that prediction markets really abided by that.

So I mean, it's not they...

Like, they gave a warning shot.

They were like, you know, "We're not [laughs]...

We want you to do these things, and then we can potentially play ball with you," and prediction markets were like, "Eh, we're not gonna go that far." So now the NFL has been like, "Okay, if you don't wanna do that, then we're not gonna play ball with you." So yeah, I mean, there, there could still be some negotiation with the NFL where prediction markets are like, "Okay, if you're that serious, then we can start to draw back on some of these sports things," but we'll see how it plays out.

Um, okay.

And then I see that, uh, Flutter and DraftKings stock is on the rise, so maybe the trade if you're, uh, an equities trader is to, um, uh, look for upside there if, if you think that the winds are really turning against prediction markets right now.

That is beyond my power to, uh, really advise on.

Not financial advice, especially when we talk about equities market.

Um, but a- a- anything else I'm missing there?

Uh, I would just say the first good day for Matt Kalish in, you know, months.

So, uh, first up, we have to talk about football, all right? So, um, I'm reading a tweet from CNBC here that slugged, "NFL tells Supreme Court prediction markets are gambling and should be regulated by the states." And then, uh, we of course double-clicked on that.

That gets our attention.

And, uh, in the piece the author writes, quote, "In an amicus brief supporting the New Jersey regulators in their battle against Kalshi, the National Football League argues sports prediction contracts are effectively gambling, not financial swaps." Um, what's the trade here, Domer?

Yeah.

It's, it, it-- You know, the NFL is not, [laughs] not a good enemy to have.

You know? If the NFL shows up as a villain in a movie, it's not gonna end well for the good guy probably.

So I mean, I think, I think sports are looking in somewhat dire shape.

I mean, the, the optimistic angle is that the judges on the Supreme Court will probably be partial towards, uh, the Kalshi and Polymarket arguments that we should keep sports.

But you know, if, if the NFL is kinda, you know, an 800-pound gorilla that's kinda weighing in on the side of, um, you know, against prediction markets on sports, that's not a good thing I don't think.

It does make me wonder if this is also the NFL just sort of seeing where the wind is coming from and trying to, trying to make their own bet.

Um, or, uh...

I mean, I, I don't know.

I do-- I would just think they're a very savvy organization, that they, they, they, they see where they need to be for their own interests, and they're just gonna join the pile on now.

Yeah.

Well, I mean, the, the other, the other piece of background information is I think they sent a letter, uh, that was, like, outlining what they want prediction markets to do, and it was like, "Stop doing announcing bets," and, "Stop doing X, Y, and Z." And I don't think that prediction markets really abided by that.

So I mean, it's not they...

Like, they gave a warning shot.

They were like, you know, "We're not [laughs]...

We want you to do these things, and then we can potentially play ball with you," and prediction markets were like, "Eh, we're not gonna go that far." So now the NFL has been like, "Okay, if you don't wanna do that, then we're not gonna play ball with you." So yeah, I mean, there, there could still be some negotiation with the NFL where prediction markets are like, "Okay, if you're that serious, then we can start to draw back on some of these sports things," but we'll see how it plays out.

Um, okay.

And then I see that, uh, Flutter and DraftKings stock is on the rise, so maybe the trade if you're, uh, an equities trader is to, um, uh, look for upside there if, if you think that the winds are really turning against prediction markets right now.

That is beyond my power to, uh, really advise on.

Not financial advice, especially when we talk about equities market.

Um, but a- a- anything else I'm missing there?

Uh, I would just say the first good day for Matt Kalish in, you know, months.