Chris Cillizza, Katie Zacharia's woes & the OG political trader | Chris Cillizza

**The midterms enter the waiting game.** With Election Day less than three weeks away, Alex and Domer ask how much meaningful movement is still possible as Republicans defend an expanding map and traders hunt for whatever value remains. **Chris Cillizza takes the temperature of the map.** Cillizza breaks down Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Nebraska and South Carolina, discusses where split-ticket voting could matter, and looks ahead to which political figures could disappear from relevance after Election Day. **Katie Zacharia becomes another White House market.** The show examines whether the new press secretary’s rocky opening and continuing negative coverage could eventually threaten her job—and whether traders may be better served waiting for the immediate news cycle to cool. **Inside the mind of a political bookmaker.** Veteran oddsmaker Paul “Motty” Krishnamurty explains how he originates political lines, reacts to incoming money, evaluates thin House and primary markets and separates his own forecasts from the prices a sportsbook ultimately posts. **The 2028 market is already beginning.** Cillizza and Motty offer very different early reads on the next presidential cycle, discussing names including AOC, Jon Ossoff, Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, JD Vance and several longer-shot possibilities. **Extended:** Alex Keeney and Domer start with another rough week for White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia, after new reporting raised questions about her past claims to be a lawyer. With prediction markets suddenly putting a much higher price on her being out by year-end, is the market reacting rationally — or chasing another Trump administration personnel drama after missing the Kimberly Guilfoyle trade? Then longtime political analyst Chris Cillizza joins Eventual with the midterms just weeks away. We draft the political figures who could disappear from relevance after Election Day, rank the races traders may be badly mispricing, and look for signals beyond the polling averages: split-ticket voting, candidate quality, overlooked Senate races, Trump-era cabinet departures and what the 2026 results could tell us about 2028. Which supposedly competitive race will look ridiculous in hindsight? Where could ticket splitting matter most? And are traders better off studying polling crosstabs — or sitting down in an Ohio diner? Finally, legendary political bookmaker Paul Krishnamurty joins the show to explain how election odds actually get made. We go inside the bookmaker’s process for pricing House races, adjusting lines as information changes, accounting for candidate-specific performance and deciding when — or whether — to shade a market to attract action. **Plus:**  Oracle of the Week, Dunce of the Week, Ken Paxton money, Mike Johnson’s future, Pete Hegseth vs. Susie Wiles, and plenty more from the final stretch of the 2026 midterms. **Sponsored segment:**  Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us. **Disclaimer:**  Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction. If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information.     *The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.* *For Polymarket US users:* *18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See* polymarket.com/tos *for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.*