Aug 4, 2026 · 21 min · 14 segments
Online grocery sales in the US are expected to grow **more than 100%** by 2030. But what’s behind that acceleration? In this episode, Euromonitor experts Matthew Barry and Michelle Evans answer…
Matthew BarryGuest
Michelle EvansHost
Matt, you talked about how Gen Z, you know, is relatively small right now in their spending since they're younger and don't have as much money.

But could you give us an idea of what their spend might be like as they advance in their careers, start their families and the like?

Yeah, I think it's pretty clear they're going to be – when they're 35, they're going to spend a lot more on online grocery than the current 35-year-olds do because they're starting out at a much more technological base.

And that is, of course, on the assumption that they're economically in a similar spot, which, of course, is a big assumption, asking what the U.S. labor market looks like in 10 years.

But historically speaking, you know, today's 20 somethings should then move up in their careers into their 30s and then spend a lot more money than they do today.

And that is we know that having parents in sorry, having children at the home is a big indicator of spending money online grocery.

Because, you know, if you have kids running around, you just need the convenience a little bit more.

And Gen Z's fertility rate is probably not going to match that of previous generations.

We know a lot of them are not looking to have kids at the same rate as previous generations.

I don't think we're going to see, you know, that big a fertility difference long term.

Certainly our online grocery spend increased a lot more with the second than it did the first.

One question that someone asked and somewhat related to, you know, looking at the forecast and projected spend.

Their question was, do you anticipate the current U.S. economic conditions to impact e-commerce growth? And they're looking at or they highlighted also the younger generation or lower household income participation.

Matt, you talked about how Gen Z, you know, is relatively small right now in their spending since they're younger and don't have as much money.

But could you give us an idea of what their spend might be like as they advance in their careers, start their families and the like?

Yeah, I think it's pretty clear they're going to be – when they're 35, they're going to spend a lot more on online grocery than the current 35-year-olds do because they're starting out at a much more technological base.

And that is, of course, on the assumption that they're economically in a similar spot, which, of course, is a big assumption, asking what the U.S. labor market looks like in 10 years.

But historically speaking, you know, today's 20 somethings should then move up in their careers into their 30s and then spend a lot more money than they do today.

And that is we know that having parents in sorry, having children at the home is a big indicator of spending money online grocery.

Because, you know, if you have kids running around, you just need the convenience a little bit more.

And Gen Z's fertility rate is probably not going to match that of previous generations.

We know a lot of them are not looking to have kids at the same rate as previous generations.

I don't think we're going to see, you know, that big a fertility difference long term.

Certainly our online grocery spend increased a lot more with the second than it did the first.

One question that someone asked and somewhat related to, you know, looking at the forecast and projected spend.

Their question was, do you anticipate the current U.S. economic conditions to impact e-commerce growth? And they're looking at or they highlighted also the younger generation or lower household income participation.
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