UK Reset, ECB Signals and the AI Earnings Test

Matt Jones and Neil Staines look ahead to a week shaped by UK political change, major economic releases, the ECB meeting and US earnings. As Andy Burnham becomes Labour leader and Prime Minister, markets will assess his cabinet appointments, fiscal priorities and the potential implications for taxation, public spending and government borrowing. Employment, CPI, business-confidence and retail-sales data will provide fresh evidence on labour-market slack, inflation and underlying demand. Continued uncertainty around the Autumn Budget may also weigh on business investment. Globally, the calendar includes Australian employment, German ZEW, eurozone consumer confidence and July’s flash PMIs. The ECB meeting takes centre stage, although President Lagarde is expected to offer limited forward guidance. In the US, a light data calendar and the Fed blackout period shift attention towards Iran-related geopolitics, energy prices and Q2 earnings. Results from Google, Texas Instruments, Tesla and AT&T will intensify the debate around AI investment, semiconductor demand, earnings growth and valuations. **00:00** Show introduction **00:29** UK politics and economic data **02:40** ECB meeting and the global calendar **04:29** US geopolitics and Q2 earnings **05:51** Weekend sports watchlist **06:56** Long and short picks **07:20** Wrap-up and disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.