Payrolls, UK Fiscal Uncertainty and the Global Policy Outlook

US payrolls take centre stage as markets turn from Federal Reserve policy back to the data, while UK fiscal uncertainty and global inflation developments shape the wider macro outlook. Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview the week ahead for professional investors. In the UK, recent employment and retail sales data remain weak, while underlying services and wage pressures are moderating despite elevated headline inflation. The monetary policy implications remain neutral to dovish, but the fiscal outlook is less certain as Prime Minister Burnham faces his first Prime Minister’s Questions. Eurizon SLJ Capital remains cautious on the UK macro outlook into September and beyond. Globally, attention turns to Australian inflation projections, an expected 25-basis-point RBNZ rate increase, Japanese retail sales and industrial production, and China’s August PMI data. In the Eurozone, August flash inflation arrives ahead of the ECB’s September meeting, while natural gas prices could prove increasingly important for the monetary policy path beyond September. In the US, the focus shifts decisively back to the economic data following the latest policy update from Fed Chair Warsh. JOLTS, ISM manufacturing and services, ADP payrolls, the Federal Reserve Beige Book and the trade balance all lead into Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, with the labour market a key input into the Fed reaction function and the US yield curve. Neil also looks ahead to the long bank holiday weekend, including rugby, cricket, Premier League football, Notting Hill Carnival and Reading Festival. **Chapters** 00:00 Show intro 00:29 September watchlist: UK 00:42 UK data and monetary policy 01:19 UK politics and fiscal uncertainty 01:58 Global data roundup 02:53 Eurozone inflation and the ECB 03:45 US payrolls week 04:52 US data calendar 05:36 Long weekend sport 06:33 Festival banter and wrap-up 07:15 Closing and disclosures The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.