Oct 12, 2026 · 3 min · 2 segments
A tax expert suggests National's trademark tax relief seems a fair way off, with little wiggle room in its fiscal plan. The Party says it can't offer tax cuts until it gets on top of debt. It says…
Geof NightingaleGuest
Andrew DickensHost
Yes, [laughs] um, they are sort of dangling tax cuts in front of us, but, um, probably with some, some good justification, actually, um, given the outlook over the next four years.
Well, r- yeah, but the global outlook, the bond markets and all that, it looks a bit dodgy.
I mean, honestly, the big complaint is that we don't have enough government revenue to do the basic stuff that we want to do well.
Yeah, w- well, that's fair, but the thing is, w- with the kind of tax cuts that they're proposing, they're not really tax cuts.
What they're, what they're doing is avoiding, uh, tax increases by stealth.
So, so a- as economic growth gets going and our income starts to rise, if you leave the tax brackets unadjusted, people's average tax rates start to go up, and it goes up faster than their income grows.
And that, that was what they adjusted in 2024, and cost about $2.6 billion to make adjustments to the lower three and four tax brackets.
If they did that again in '28, '29 when they're forecasting the surplus, they- they've got room to do that.
The, and then it's a priority question of whether that's the right thing to do.
So, uh, we hear they've got seven and a half billion left in operating spending.
Um, we know that Labor has almost no wriggle room after their pay equity, uh, thing.
Um, so, so if you think about the 2024 bracket adjustments, that was 2.6 billion.
Um, and the 7.5 billion un- unallocated spending all arrives in '29 and '30, so it's a long way out.
Yes, [laughs] um, they are sort of dangling tax cuts in front of us, but, um, probably with some, some good justification, actually, um, given the outlook over the next four years.
Well, r- yeah, but the global outlook, the bond markets and all that, it looks a bit dodgy.
I mean, honestly, the big complaint is that we don't have enough government revenue to do the basic stuff that we want to do well.
Yeah, w- well, that's fair, but the thing is, w- with the kind of tax cuts that they're proposing, they're not really tax cuts.
What they're, what they're doing is avoiding, uh, tax increases by stealth.
So, so a- as economic growth gets going and our income starts to rise, if you leave the tax brackets unadjusted, people's average tax rates start to go up, and it goes up faster than their income grows.
And that, that was what they adjusted in 2024, and cost about $2.6 billion to make adjustments to the lower three and four tax brackets.
If they did that again in '28, '29 when they're forecasting the surplus, they- they've got room to do that.
The, and then it's a priority question of whether that's the right thing to do.
So, uh, we hear they've got seven and a half billion left in operating spending.
Um, we know that Labor has almost no wriggle room after their pay equity, uh, thing.
Um, so, so if you think about the 2024 bracket adjustments, that was 2.6 billion.
Um, and the 7.5 billion un- unallocated spending all arrives in '29 and '30, so it's a long way out.
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