“How much should we worry about the pneumonic plague lableak in Siberia?” by Drew Spartz

Epistemic status: I wrote this up hoping people can poke holes in it because I am quite worried.   **Here's what we've heard so far:** - Local media is reporting that an employee of a BSL-3 lab in Irkutsk, Russia, died of pneumonic plague on Oct 1st. - The initial quarantine covered 200 people who were in contact with the employee before she died. - The FSB (Russian FBI) was seen assisting in the quarantine, which means it was not voluntary. - Soviet-era whistleblowers like Ken Alibek claim Irkutsk was a major bioweapon development facility. **As of Oct 4th:** - The quarantine has expanded to 5 hospitals in the area. - The Russian government has switched to denial/coverup. Local news sources have deleted mentions of "pneumonic plague." <!--THE END--> - Local universities and schools have canceled some classes and extended mask mandates. - On the lab's website, they mention gain-of-function research for making bacteria more virulent. - The White House is monitoring the suspected outbreak. **10/5 update:** - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan are now doing quarantine health checks at the Russian border to contain the spread of pneumonic plague. - Russian equivalent of HHS is now denying there was any accident at the lab at all. - \[...] \--- **Outline:** (00:18) Here's what we've heard so far: (00:51) As of Oct 4th: (02:06) 10/5 update: (02:29) Why this might be a big deal (03:53) Why this might not be a big deal \--- **First published:** October 5th, 2026 **Source:** https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jukqfkkeez3cCqxkC/how-much-should-we-worry-about-the-pneumonic-plague-lableak \--- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. \--- **Images from the article:**  *Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.*