#173 - How to Buy Property in a Downturn: Lessons From 2019 for Australian Investors in 2026

Everyone wants to know when the property market will bottom. But what if that’s the wrong question? In 2019, Australian property had been falling for close to two years. Credit was tight, an election was approaching and investor confidence was low. It was also when Tom bought a property in Merewether with virtually no competition. The renovation wasn’t perfect. In fact, parts of it were wrong. The result? Around a $100,000 profit. In this episode of The Australian Property Show, Tom looks back at thirty years of Australian property cycles to explain why the greatest opportunities often appear before the market feels safe again. More importantly, he explains why successful investing is less about perfectly predicting the market and more about buying with a margin of safety. Tom also shares what Groundswell Property is seeing in the 2026 market, particularly in vacant commercial property, where holding costs, motivated vendors and reduced competition are creating some of the most interesting buying opportunities in years. If you’re wondering whether to buy, wait or keep sitting on the sidelines, this episode will help you change the question. Instead of asking, “Has the market bottomed?” Start asking, “Can I buy this asset well?” **KEY LISTENER TAKEAWAYS** • Why the end of the 2017–2019 property downturn felt anything but obvious while investors were living through it. • How Tom bought a Merewether property with virtually no competition, got parts of the renovation wrong and still made around a $100,000 profit. • Why “you make your money when you buy” is about creating a margin for error — not simply negotiating the lowest possible price. • Why waiting for confirmation that the market has bottomed can mean waiting until the best buying conditions have already disappeared. • How to distinguish an asset that is cheap because it has fundamental problems from a quality asset that has become cheaper because sentiment, vendor pressure or competition has changed. • Why vacant commercial property is creating opportunities in 2026, particularly where owners are carrying interest, rates, insurance, land tax and other costs without rental income. • The questions astute buyers should be asking about land value, replacement cost, rental potential, vendor motivation and long-term utility instead of trying to predict what property prices will do next. **Take Action Today:** If you are serious about building wealth through property, but not yet fully clear on your next move, book a complimentary clarity call with our team via the link below. In one conversation, we can help you get clearer on your position, your options, and the path forward — because clarity creates confidence, and confidence helps people act. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Book a complimentary clarity call⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Connect with host of The Australian Property Show - Tom Haigh⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ We'll help analyse your current position, identify your biggest untapped opportunities, and get you moving towards the life you want. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠**General Advice Warning!**  The information (including taxation) contained in this podcast is general in nature and does not consider your individual financial circumstances or needs. You should not act on the information provided without first obtaining professional advice specific to your circumstances. Unfortunately, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information in this podcast, including any financial, taxation, and/or legal information. The views expressed in this podcast are solely those of the individual; they are not reflective or indicative of Groundswell Property's position and are not to be attributed to Groundswell Property Pty Ltd. The host is NOT a qualified tax accountant, financial (tax) adviser, or financial adviser. This podcast cannot be reproduced in any form without the express written consent of Groundswell Property.