Ep207: Is the rally over? Market grinds. Surviving the house of cards

Two indexes going slightly up overnight, the other two going slightly down, and just waiting for a concrete directional move that's not based on fabrication.

The SPX bear swings are holding nicely.

We did get that nice tag and turn set up.

And what's interesting is the bear failure.

If this is going to happen, it usually happens quite quickly.

We've got a little bit of a drop down and then we'll get that violent swing back higher.

So because of the... full stock rally on this index, unless we see further rise on the AI sector and those individual stocks, then you've got to wonder, like, will this fail? And are we going to actually see a genuine bear move? I think it's 74% failure on the bear, so 24% success rate.

So we might actually just fall into the very narrow, smaller probability trade on this occasion.

Again, just more than thinking out loud and spitballing.

The lower Bollinger Band is catching up now, so even if we do see that small drop low, which is expected, then what we can see is we'll get the tag and turn before the eventual rally high.

On the assumption that we do see that rally high, but for now the bears are holding nicely.

Uncle Russell did nudge the upper Bollinger Bands so we got the official tag and turn unlike what I suspected which is the failure of that prior bull and again this did flag up with a low score similar to the S&P it's not a completely a void but what we do get or what we did get is we got the v-shaped entry and the The management is saying we've got the V-entry confirmed, just waiting to potentially add in.

Again, this is going to enhance the opportunity for the trade.

So we start off with a nervous Nelly, not sure about this one.

And then we get the price action is confirming that actually this is starting to look better.

So we'll see that scoring change.

I hope we see the Russell push lower.