Ep206: The Bear Setup Is Valid, The MACD-v Extreme Says Otherwise

Anyway, let's take a look at the SPX again, looking at the usual swings.

Now the S&P did gap higher at the open as we suspected.

It did tank the Bollinger Band as we suspected, so we've got half the set-up.

But then it galloped off to quite literally the far side of the moon to possibly check for aliens.

It just went straight up and didn't really give us a downtick all day.

So right up to the final bell, we did get that tag and turn setup.

We've got our bearish pulse bar, bearish tag and turn.

The software is highlighting this as a reduced size setup.

It's not telling us to skip it completely this time.

But what we do have is the MACD V Extreme, so we've got a little bit of conflict with the setup, which is why it's been reduced score.

So if or should this bear setup fail, because we're in that bullish MACD Extreme, that could be the time to kind of flip direction, and what you should see in the software, is it'll tell you to increase position size, because usually this type of scenario, if the bear setup fails, then the bull setup is actually a really strong continuation signal.

Technically we also have a breakout on the days, which is one of the things we have been eyeing up.

So we've got the breakout, so a down move would be welcome.

I don't think we're going to get the move down to the lower Bollinger Bands, just because they're super wide at the moment.

But that breakout pullback, so a down move would be expected.

One to two days would be normal.

So, as I often say in these types of scenarios, the bear trades that can be kept on a tight leash.

And you know, if that bear setup fails, or when that bear setup fails, you know, maybe just be optimistic, then we could be looking at another extension of that very strong movement.

Now, given the fact that the rally was kind of driven by a handful of tech stocks, we're going to need something to happen in the tech sector for that to happen.

So there's a little bit of a fly in the ointment around that.

But just looking at the technicals, just looking at the chart patterns, the setup, you know, this failed bear is going to be a good bull.

But what's going to drive the bull is like leaves me with a little bit of a contradiction.

And then I come back to we're in bear season, we've got the cycles, we've got the worst week of the year, post-triple witching, blah, blah, blah.

You know, there's just a lot of conflict at the moment.

Like I am hugely bearish, but the market continues to go up.