Ep202: Nasdaq Leads The Bear Charge: What You Need To Know

For weeks, this channel has done the same thing.

Price turns up to the upper boundary, then turns lower.

And this morning, it turns lower without quite getting to the upper boundary.

And most traders will not notice because nothing's happening at the level that they're watching.

So are we essentially looking at a structural shift in the market? Well, hopefully from my point of view, it's going to be the eventual and inevitable bear move in the rest of September.

Now looking at the VIX just for a second, the VIX has obviously gaps high in the same way that the S&P has gaps lower.

which is a good thing and we have seen some clues in the past couple of weeks or past couple of months to be fair for that matter where the vix has moved ahead of the s p but these two are in lockstep at the moment so my big question from the vix's perspective is are we going to see more than just two days above that elusive 16 level we've been earmarking this as the benchmark through september if it pops above then it could be bombs away for the markets And as things are, we spent two days at most before retreating back below.

So we're going to see that same thing again when we come into these main sessions.

nasdaq ultimately is leading the charge lower for them to break in these new lows for the first time in a while so we've seen lower lows lower lows lower lows on the other indexes but the uh the nasdaq is finally just pushing that new low uh at the approximately the 28 29 000 level that we can just see there so you know is that going to be sustained as we come into the regular session and trading for the week now There's plenty of bear opportunities, but is a one day move a sign of an overall bear moving? We've got seasonality in our favour, but can we really expect that follow through to remain sustained? taking a look at the details over on the s p again we can see that descending channel uh again clear on the daily charts but again we've got the same uh range on the uh 30 minute charts over here and again one of the things that i'm looking at is just this area here where market has come up to that midpoint of the range and again we already know that the market's going to be capital about 50 points that's going to take us down to these lows here this um already pre-marked uh bear flip point that's 7600 i think what i'm going to do just generally speaking is use 7600 as my over under so if we remain above it we'll be inside the range of the below outside the range it just gives us a nice easy benchmark to say hey you know same thing's going to continue while we're in the range and something new is happening and breakouts on the outside the range i obviously am favoring the bear scenario uh just with everything we spoke about with the seasonality the midterm uh impact as well so as we you know go from the middle to the end of september it is i'm gonna be banging that big bear uh bear drum Over on Russell, Russell remains very simple to assess.