Zonda Home

So there's about 7,000 finished locks versus 1,700 annual starts.

And this was from stats from Zonda.

This was Q1 of 2026.

A balanced market in that is about 24 months.

Um, 4.4 billion figure looks familiar with a slightly different number attached.

You may be thinking of an earlier report from Rennie using CMHC and Zonda data back in April that put the value at 4.6.

But despite, it is over 4 billions of unsold, and it creates a lot of, um, issues here.

I mean, one part is, you know, p- the surprising, you know, you will see it in the comments, like no one wants to live in a dog crate in all these small condos.

According to the 2025 Cost vs.

Value Report from Zonda, a minor kitchen remodel is the strongest interior project for resale.

Nationally, it recoups about 113% of its cost, so it can add more value than it costs.

A mid-range major remodel recoups about 50%, and an upscale remodel about 36%.

And then as you scale, you think, okay, if I can sell four per month, it takes you four months to build you really need to buy a minimum of 16 just to keep you going for four months so you start four or eight that month and then another eight the next month so as you sell for a month you got to keep producing four more starts a month so you really have to have your eye on that golden globe out there because you got to keep if you're selling for a month that means you got to start for a month And literally, if you sell for a month and you're only starting for a month, maybe you need to start six a month so you can have some rollover and it keeps going.

So one of the people in our office, her name is Christine Smale, used to work for Zonda and also used to work for another, I don't remember the name, another research company.

So for eight years, all she did was research for builders across the southeastern part of the United States.

So she knows how to research the market, see what's growing.

We have 80 people a day either born here or coming in here because of those businesses.

I've got the Zonda report of how many housing permits we had.

We had 8,500 or so in the past year.

We need 20,000.

But like, there's a big segment of the contractor space that this AI boom, like no one is going to outbid, you know, one of these hyperscalers for labor, right? Like they...

they are they are the bid in the market right like they're the one who's clearing the market from a labor perspective so like again just it's this headwind for for home builders right not only we're here and obviously we've had more aggressive immigration enforcement on top of that right so you're starting to hear from the home builders like this last couple of months, whether you read, if it's John Byrd's real estate consulting or Zonda, they're starting to feel it on the labor side of the market right now.

We didn't hear much of that until recently.

And so it's that.