Vale S.A.

The dividend payout had increased from $0.40 to $0.75.

Number seven, Vale S.A., stock symbol V-A-L-E, with a score of 68 in 2021, a share price of $19.00, and a dividend payout of $1.51.

In 2026, its score had dropped to 46 and its share price to $14.17.

The dividend yield percent was now 4.56%, down from 4.70% in 2021.

In 2010, BHP's announcement marked the end of that regime, and...

Within days and weeks, Vale Rio Tinto, they moved away from annual benchmark pricing as well.

The system, it was finished.

The interesting story that we're going to unpack today is how BHP got there, because this wasn't something that the CEO at the time, Marius Klopp, has decided in March 2010.

Right.

Separately.

So Vale later, BHB and Rio Tinto would go and they would meet with all the big steel meals and they'd all have a chin wag and get a feeling for where price is going to be.

But then One major mill and one major miner would agree on a price.

Um, and interestingly, out of that, um, that screening, that totally systematic screening process, if I'd just followed the rules mathematically, you know, even with an override for Glencore, 'cause I sort of, I sort of adjusted their, their normalized re- normalized, um, f- free cash flow yield.

Um, but even that, um, the systematic scorer didn't, didn't spit out a single copper stock, right? Um, in the, in the metal space it, it, it offered up Vale and Anglos, right? And we can talk about my, my, my view on those, um, talk about iron o- la- later.

But, um, for me, the 20 for 20 has to have, um, has to have some meaningful copper exposure and, um, you know, I think, you know, these days, you know, you're, you're looking at Glencore and it's a beast of a co- copper business, with cash flow from the seaborne coal business supporting it.

And then a, a, an, a, you know, a marketing business which is not ma- not valued by the market, but I think the people will soon in, over time learn that it's incredibly valuable, and they're pretty good at what they do.

I mean, so to the first point, I was pretty adamant that the, you know, the only one of the big three that kicked out of the systematic score was Anglos, right? And in my experience, I've done much better buying the businesses that they spun out in the past, whether it's Fungala, Valterra, for example.

Um, you know, this is, this, you know, this, this is not an organization that, um, gives me confidence around a long-term underwrite, right? Particularly the kind of timeframe that we're talking about.

Um, my biggest issue, and the other one that got spat out of the basic, basic, basic metal, base metals was w- was Vale, right? And it obviously scored very well in terms of total shareholder return, et cetera, but, you know, how many cycles have you been waiting for Vale to rerate, right? Um, Vale was in the original 2026 portfolio from t- 2006.

It just about eked out a positive return, but really, really only just.

Yeah.

So that was Petrobos and then you went to Vail and started your mining career.

Is that right? One guy that I met on

the refinery, he went to Guinea in Africa for an item war.

Uh, the capital is Conakry and the mine was actually here 1, 2, 3, 4.

So the Simundu project was involving two companies at the time.

Half was Vale and half was Retinto, the company that I am today.

So it's kind of a coincidence.

Oh, thank you, buddy.

Just wanna know your thoughts, just wanna know your thoughts on Vale S.A.

Yes.

Vale.