[laughs]

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

It- I- it's been, it's been insane.

The, so far through, through two weeks or, you know, three weeks if you wanna count week zero, the, the line move, like, the closing line value we call it, which is when you beat, bet a number that's better than what it closes at, historically and over the long run we know that if you're beating the market to the closing number, you're, you're gonna win more often than not.

But sometimes you get these small samples like we've got right here with a, with a two-week sample, and the closing line value's been terrible.

What do you like in this Florida at Auburn? Florida is favored by two and a half.

Tissue.

Yeah, I'm going to take the Ohio Bobcats against Jacksonville State.

I don't know how many people watched Ohio versus Nebraska, but they led for a decent chunk of that game.

They were right there.

I mean, they gave Nebraska all they could handle.

Nebraska pulled away in the fourth quarter just with their depth of talent, but...

I mean, in the first half, OU ran for four and a half yards of carry and threw for six and a half yards per attempt, had a 33% success rate against the Big Ten team, so that's solid.

Why are we taking the over on this?

Why do you like the under?

Yeah, I do.

Side note, I do love that.

Despite the conference realignment, we are keeping some of these rivalries that have been going on forever.

I think that's great.

So my numbers project the total at 43.5 in this game.

So just right out of the gate, that's a huge, huge advantage on the projection.

Can you explain this to people?

Fever to make the title game at 5-1, you prefer over the Fever to win it all at 18-1.

Yeah, just based on where the market pricing is, I felt like that jumped off as a better value play.

Is there a value play you like to win at all? So I did look at Liberty plus 750 to win at all.

Circa's sitting at plus 265, but the recreational books are all way, way longer odds than that.

So I saw Liberty plus 750 out there.

I would nibble on that.

I...

They're lined at four and a half.

Is there a, a value play you like to win it all?

So I did look at, uh, the Liberty plus 750 to win it all.

Circa's sitting at plus 265, um, but the recreational books are all way, way longer odds than that.

So, uh, I saw Liberty plus 750 out there.

I would, I would nibble on that.

I, I mean, they were the preseason number one, clearly, in the power ratings.

Um, they've not been very good here the last, uh, three, four weeks.

There's, they're lined at four and a half.

Last night, we just throw that game in the garbage, right? Because they got blasted by like 30 plus.

Yeah, I mean, I think you can throw that game away.

And I saw it coming in the numbers with the regression because, you know, the Aces had just killed the Mercury by almost 50 the night before.

They're on a back-to-back like that.

You could see the writing on the wall there a little bit.

But no, as far as last weekend at the games, I had a great time, really good atmosphere at the Aces games, of course.

But the thing that really jumped out to me because Asia Wilson didn't play in either game, and obviously she's a four-time MVP for a reason.

So I think that's really sort of a fun challenge of handicapping these teams because there's such a fluidity to this season and just the newness to everything for all these players.

Last night we just throw that game in the garbage, right? 'Cause they got blasted by like 30 plus.

Yeah.

I mean, I think you can throw that game away and, and I, I saw it coming in, in the numbers with the regression because, you know, the Aces had just killed the Mercury by almost 50 the night before.

They're on a back-to-back.

Like that, that...

You could see the writing on the wall there a little bit.

Um, but no, a- as far as last weekend at the games, I, I had a great time, really good atmosphere at the Aces games of course.

So I think that's really sort of a fun challenge of handicapping these teams because there's such a fluidity to this season and just the newness to everything for all these players.

Last night, we just threw that game in the garbage, right? Because they got blasted by like 30 plus.

Yeah, I mean, I think you can throw that game away.

And I saw it coming in the numbers with the regression because, you know, the Aces had just killed the Mercury by almost 50 the night before.

They're on a back-to-back like that.

You could see the writing on the wall there a little bit.

But no, as far as last weekend at the games, I had a great time, really good atmosphere at the Aces games, of course.

But the thing that really jumped out to me because Asia Wilson didn't play in either game, and obviously she's a four-time MVP for a reason.

So I think that's really sort of a fun challenge of handicapping these teams because there's such a fluidity to this season and just the newness to everything for all these players.

Is that where we kind of are with the aces now where like nothing in the regular season really matters ultimately and that you can still count on them come postseason?

I think so.

I talk about this a lot in all sports, championship fatigue.

And when you have teams, you think back to like the Golden State Warriors of the 2015, 2016 era.

Those type of teams like the Aces, I think after you've had to climb the mountaintop so many times, like I think you just get tired and bored with the regular season and understandably so.

I've actually been pleasantly surprised with how well they've played in the regular season so far this year compared to last year.

Because like you said, last year, people were kind of ringing some panic alarms about them.

Is there any bet right now to win the title, any number that you like value-wise? Is there any MVP bet that you like at this point?

Is that where we kind of are with the aces now where like nothing in the regular season really matters ultimately and that you can still count on them come postseason?

I think so.

I talk about this a lot in all sports, championship fatigue.

And when you have teams, you think back to the Golden State Warriors of the 2015-2016 era.

Those type of teams, like the Aces, I think after you've had to climb the mountaintop so many times, I think you just get tired and bored with the regular season, and understandably so.

I've actually been pleasantly surprised with how well they've played in the regular season so far this year compared to last year.

Because like you said, last year, people were kind of ringing some panic alarms about them.

Is there any bet right now to win the title, any number that you like value-wise? Is there any MVP bet that you like at this point?

Is that where we kind of are with the Aces now, where, like, nothing in the regular season really matters ultimately, in that you can still count on them come postseason?

I think so.

I, I, I talk about this a lot in, in all sports, uh, championship fatigue.

And when you have teams, you think back to, like, the, the Golden State Warriors of, of the 2015, 2016 era.

Those type of teams, like the Aces, I think after you've had to climb the mountaintop so many times, like, I think you just get tired and bored with the regular season, and understandably so.

Uh, I've actually been pleasantly surprised with how well they've played in the regular season so far this year compared to last year, 'cause like you said, last year people were kind of ringing some panic, uh, panic alarms about them.

But, but this year they've been, they've been very good and, and the numbers show that against playoff teams, their, their game grades, their power rating is even higher.

Is there any bet right now to win the title, any, any number that you like, uh, value-wise? Is there any MVP bet that you like at this point?

Article up right now and like pretty much every day there are games in the WNBA up at VEASAN.com. Was there a bet in particular today that you do really like?

Yeah, I did play the Mercury.

That line actually moved towards the Storm.

And this is what I think is happening.

The Storm, their last three games, they played excellent.

However, all three of those games were at home, and they have been abysmal on the road this year.

They've only won one road game this year, and that was in May against Connecticut.

Janelle Salon of the Valkyries at plus 110.

Even better, yeah

... you know, otherworldly.

I think there is something to be said for, um, integrating those type of pieces, especially one that, that defends, um, that demands such attention on offense as Napheesa Collier.

So I think ultimately they're gonna be awesome and, uh, really tough out in the playoffs, but I think we might see some short-term lumps when she comes back as they try to figure out how her and Miles can work together.

Uh, w- was there a bet in particular today that you do really like?

Yeah, I, I did play the, the Mercury.

Uh, that, that line actually moved towards the Storm, and this is what I think is happening.

The Storm, their last three games they played excellent.

How does your model adapt to a sudden star absence or compared to the general public and bookmakers react?

Yeah, so one thing that I have done, and I've implemented this across all of my sports, when there is an injury announced, assuming it is going to be short-term, because if it's going to be long-term, that's a little bit different.

Like if a star player is out for the season a month in, that changes things a little bit.

But I generally have erred on the side of conservatively adjust for, for that game and then kind of let the ensuing data kind of guide my adjustments on that team's power rating.

Because I think, I think what happens is when a player like for instance, tonight Asia Wilson was just announced out for the commissioner's cup championship and And I think immediately everyone just automatically runs and bets the other side.

But I've actually had a lot of success in multiple sports betting on the team whose star player is out for a game because of market overreaction.

And again, so I don't necessarily implement that into the model formula per se because that kind of muddies the data, in my opinion.

As the other players step up, they feel like they need to step up, and it's like their time to shine, like you said.

As the other players step up, they feel like they need to step up, and it's like their time to shine, like you said.

Yeah, it's not – I think people think about it so simplistically of like, okay, this person's out.

She's – like tonight, Asia Wilson, I think she's probably worth about five or six points to the spread, but – That being said, if you just take her out, there's not a hole in the lineup.

Now they're going to put someone else in there, and there are other pro players, especially on a team like the Aces that are so deep.

I mean, they've got Joel Lloyd coming off the bench who would start for virtually any other team in the league.

Kennedy Carter coming off the bench who would start pretty much anywhere else.

So they've got some depth pieces, and they've got Melissa Smith inside.

What's your thought on this Caitlin Clark situation?

Tishu, who is it for you?

Yeah, I'm with you on Miami.

I also, which I kind of approach this question maybe a little bit differently.

I just, Oregon and Miami stand out to me as like, okay, now put up or shut up.

Like I know Miami made the national championship game last year, but just seemingly to me, seeing the discourse like online with their fan base, it seems like they think like they've arrived now as like a power.

So it's like, okay, can you, you know, I'm not saying they have to make the national championship game again, but like, are you going to be back in that conversation again this year? And then Oregon, you know, with what they return, bringing Dante Moore back at quarterback, obviously a really good receiver room.

I'm curious, can Dan Lanning kind of get over the hump? Because to me, Dan Lanning's in a similar situation to what Ryan Day was maybe in 2024 before he won it.

Anyone else like that under Oregon? I think, I think,

So what, what's your outlook for them this season?

Yeah, so their, their market win total is at 25 and a half right now.

I've got them a little under that.

I've got them projected at about 24 wins.

Um, they've definitely been disappointing here in this first week or two of the season, uh, no doubt.

I, I had high hopes for them.

The weird thing with them has been Cameron Brinks' kinda, um, status in the pecking order there.

But there is a team, like, could the Dallas Wings with Paige Bueckers be that team that potentially is a dark horse? Could it maybe be Phoenix or LA, who we just spoke about? Is there a team that could kind of join that top tier of the WNBA picture, or is it kinda, hey, these are your five teams, and everyone else is an afterthought?