Tipping points in the climate system

And the IFOA is once again emphasising that the IPCC categorisation of these tipping points as low probability is looking increasingly outdated.

The Global Tipping Points report released last year suggested that thresholds for several of these systems could be crossed between 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees Celsius.

This paper points out that because we may breach 2 degrees C earlier than expected, possibly within the 2030s or 2040s, we are therefore heading into the danger zone much faster than policymakers appreciate.

And as the now well-known rolling marble model shows us, once we tip past that apex, there's no turning back, at least not on a recognisable human timescale anyway.

What can't you do? Visit capella.edu to learn more.

What if we are the ancient precursor civilization that future galaxies will look back on in awe? Overcoming our immaturity, solving our climate tipping points, surviving the algorithms we've built.

It isn't just about surviving to see tomorrow.

It is about taking our rightful place as the ancient ancestors of a cosmos-spanning civilization trillions of years from now.

And we're really running existential risks for our societies, if not for our living selves.

But it's kind of disempowering at some level if all you do is stare at what I call the bad climate tipping points that we could trigger or may already be triggering.

And seeing the world as a kind of living system includes humans and societies as an integral part of that.

It does at least give me a view where I can see that we can also change ourselves and our societies and our technology sometimes quite abruptly.

Up and ready to go, yes.

Well, over the summer, while we've been away and before we recorded our brief series in Malaysia for Tipping Points, there's been emphasis in various parts of the world on conflict.

The Middle East, particularly around Iran, the US and Israel and Iran and the various nations around them.

You will also obviously be aware, and we've discussed on this podcast before, Ukraine and Russia there, and that is continuing.

[upbeat music] Hello, and welcome to Transforming Tomorrow Tipping Points from the Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business, in association with the Sunway Centre for Planetary Health.

We're at the Global Tipping Points 2026 conference at Sunway University in Malaysia.

I'm Paul Turner.

And I'm Professor Jan Bebbington.

And this is where we have to connect it back to the godlike technology of section one.

The primary danger of climate tipping points is not just the environmental degradation itself, it is how that degradation shatters the geopolitical order.

Because the nations facing these existential resource constraints, severe water shortages, agricultural collapse, massive border stress, a lot of them are armed with nuclear arsenals.

Exactly.

[upbeat music] Hello, and welcome to Transforming Tomorrow Tipping Points, from the Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business, in association with the Sunway Centre for Planetary Health.

We're here at the Global Tipping Points Conference 2026, here at Sunway University in Malaysia.

I'm Paul Turner.

And I'm Professor Jan Bebbington.

I mean, it's, it's gonna be wonderful, Paul.

Yeah.

We're gonna tie together how finance and governance and various issues like this all fit together in the Tipping Points framework as part of the conference here.

Lots of interesting areas to discuss.

[upbeat music] Hello, and welcome to Transforming Tomorrow Tipping Points from the Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business, in association with the Sunway Centre for Planetary Health.

We're here at Global Tipping Points Conference 2026 at Sunway University in Malaysia.

I'm Paul Turner.

And I'm Professor Jan Bebbington.

Thank you so much.

It's g- great to be here.

We've been in a really fascinating session that you've led today at the Global Tipping Points Conference here at Sunway, all about nature, how that ties in with, uh, tipping points.

A lot of the focus had previously been on science and climate, so it was good to bring nature into focus today.

[upbeat music] Hello, and welcome to Transforming Tomorrow: Tipping Points, from the Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business, in association with the Centre for Planetary Health here at Sunway University in Malaysia.

We're back in Malaysia for the Global Tipping Points Conference 2026, and we're recording this special miniseries before we launch season four of Transforming Tomorrow itself.

I'm Paul Turner.

And I'm Professor Jan Bebbington.

And we're here for Tipping Points 2026.

What's that, Jan?

Well, it's a, it's a global conference, and it's the third Global Tipping Points conference, with the preceding two having been at Exeter in the UK.

So, as we'll come onto, Paul, it's really important that it's here in Asia.