Tiffany Wilding

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September Fed hike may be more than a risk management exercise by Tiffany Wilding.

the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered on consensus expectations by raising its policy rate by 25 basis points, BPS, at its September meeting.

The Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC, also shared updated forecasts in the Summary of Economic Projections, SEP, sending a strong signal that September's rate hike will very likely be followed by another hike this year, and possibly an additional hike in 2027 if inflation doesn't moderate quickly enough.

She is an assistant professor at HEC Paris, not HEC Paris, I've been informed, HEC Paris.

um she uh she is a consultant an advisor to pimco on topics of behavioral finance she has been embedded in our investment decision making process she presents to us at our quarterly investment forums she has co-authored or ghost authored our macro signposts column which is typically written by Tiffany Wilding, many of you subscribe to that and read it.

It's terrific, terrific piece, if I do say so myself.

And she's just invaluable to us here at PIMCO.

The solution is just to put some structure into the investment committee meeting such that the most senior person is the last one to speak.

such that we make sure that there's airtime for more junior individuals, people that might have a contrarian perspective, such that you're using very simple surveys to get views in a quantitative manner before the meeting so that people are anchored on their own views before the conversation begins.

This is something you mentioned Tiffany Wilding.

She does this very effectively in her regional committee.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will face more intense pressure to raise interest rates at next week's policy meeting after a highly anticipated inflation report showed US consumer prices were higher last month.

Tiffany Wilding is an economist at PIMCO.

I think this does result in, in a Federal Reserve that is, um, hiking interest rates.

I think they were very clear about, um, you know, framework guidance [laughs] ahead of this report, basically to say if, if we're seeing inflation that's not moderating, um, at a pace that we would like it to moderate, um, you know, then, then we're gonna have to gradually adjust policy.

PIMCO's Tiffany Wilding.

Underlying inflation rose more than expected in August, with core CPI increasing a third of a percent from a month earlier.

Oil prices also soared past $100 a barrel yesterday, and diesel hit another record at $6.16 a gallon as the war in Iran continues.

On an annual basis, it advanced 2.4%.

Tiffany Wilding is an economist at PIMCO.

This does, um, you know, result in, in a Federal Reserve that is, um, hiking interest rates.

I think they were very clear about, um, you know, framework guidance ahead [laughs] of this report, not forward guidance.

Basically to say if, if we're seeing inflation that's not moderating, um, at a pace that we would like it to moderate, um, you know, then, then we're gonna have to gradually adjust policy.

PIMCO economist Tiffany Wilding.

And markets are now pricing about 90% odds of a hike next week when the decision comes down Wednesday.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on Bloomberg Open Interest says while the August consumer price index release showed an acceleration in prices, the three-month trend still shows a deceleration in inflation.

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How a K-Shaped Economy Affects Opportunities in Asset-Based Finance by Lotfi Karoui and Tiffany Wilding.

Not all U.S. consumers are experiencing today's economy the same way.

Wealthier households continue to benefit from rising asset prices and solid earnings growth, while lower-income families are still absorbing the effects of years of elevated costs and tighter lending standards.

Stay tuned after the conclusion of the podcast for additional important information.

If inflation is the problem, why aren't wages? By Tiffany Wilding.

Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech struck a decidedly hawkish tone and was arguably the clearest signal yet that the Federal Reserve is actively considering additional tightening.

Markets responded by raising the probability of a September hike to roughly 60% and pricing approximately 60 basis points of cumulative tightening through the middle of next year.