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Tadeusz Patzek

Chemical engineer and physicist

Jun 24, 2026

Unknown podcast

We Weren't Expecting This: What Does a Super El Niño Mean For the Climate? with Tad Patzek

Jun 24 · 1h 25m

17:09
So maybe you can first tell us what is an El Nino and how a regular El Nino affects the climate.
17:18
Well, again, there are many excellent videos illustrating El Niño from a variety of sources, NOAA, NASA, PBS are some of them.
17:30
So very briefly, El Niño Southern Oscillation is a natural climate variability occurring in the equatorial Pacific.
17:41
And it occurs every four to seven years or three to seven years.
17:46
And then the planet goes back to the normal state.
17:51
And if it overshoots, it goes the other way to La Nina, which is the opposite to El Nino.
17:59
Now, in the normal state of the Pacific Ocean along the equator, the trade winds blow from the east to the west, and they are very strong and continuous.

16 MINS LATER

34:22
How has the albedo changed in the last 26 years?
17:09
So maybe you can first tell us what, what is an El Niño and how a regular El Niño a- affects the climate.
17:18
Well, again, um, there are many excellent videos illustrating, uh, El Niño from a variety of sources.
17:26
NOAA, NASA, uh, PBS are, are some of them.
17:30
So very briefly, El Niño Southern Oscillation is a natural climate variability occurring in the equatorial Pacific, and it occurs every four to seven years or three to seven years, and then the planet goes back to the normal state, and if it overshoots, it goes the other way, uh, to La Niña, uh, which is the opposite to El Niño.
17:59
Now, uh, i- in the normal state of the Pacific Ocean, uh, uh, al- along the equator, uh, the trade winds blow from the east to the west.
18:13
And they are very strong and continuous.
18:17
And these winds drag water across the Pacific and push the, the water towards Australia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea.

39 MINS LATER

57:30
Keep, keep going.

Unknown podcast

Why Each American Lives Like a 40-Ton Whale: Power, Overshoot, and Climate with Tad Patzek

May 6 · 1h 35m

41:36
More so than just temperature.
41:38
Oh, much more so.
41:40
It's not just temperature.
41:42
Uh, uh, so it, it's everything together, right? So extreme events can be temperature, can be rain, can be flood, can be wildfire, can be many things.
41:53
So all of them together suddenly, uh, follow different statistics or the so-called statistics of extremes, which are actually richly represented in my book, uh, and explained in an appendix.
42:08
Um, so your Gaussian, your bell curve to which you are used no longer holds, and that Gaussian curve actually basically informs people that events removed from the mean by more than two, three standard deviations, uh, are completely impossible in practice, are improbableThe, the extreme events statistics say that these distributions don't have the fast declining, uh, tails of a Gaussian distribution by the so-called fat tails.
42:49
And so the extreme events in these fat tails have actually appreciable probabilities of happening.

23 MINS LATER

65:52
But what, what sort of a metabolism might be reasonably sustainable, uh, for humans, especially if we continue to innovate and find alternative sources, et cetera, relative to today's, let's just call it twenty terawatts?
41:36
More so than just temperature.
41:38
Oh, much more so.
41:40
It's not just temperature.
41:42
Uh, uh, so it, it's everything together, right? So extreme events can be temperature, can be rain, can be flood, can be wildfire, can be many things.
41:53
So all of them together suddenly, uh, follow different statistics or the so-called statistics of extremes, which are actually richly represented in my book, uh, and explained in an appendix.
42:08
Um, so your Gaussian, your bell curve to which you are used no longer holds.
42:16
And that Gaussian curve actually basically informs people that events removed from the mean by more than two, three standard deviations, um, are completely impossible in practice, are improbableThe, the extreme events statistics say that these distributions don't have the fast declining, uh, tails of a Gaussian distribution by the so-called fat tails.

23 MINS LATER

65:52
But what, what sort of a metabolism might be reasonably sustainable, uh, for humans, especially if we continue to innovate and find alternative sources, et cetera, relative to today's, let's just call it twenty terawatts?

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