T
Tadeusz Patzek
Chemical engineer and physicist
4
APPEARANCES
2
PODCASTS
012
DEC 30
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Jun 24, 2026
P
Unknown podcast
We Weren't Expecting This: What Does a Super El Niño Mean For the Climate? with Tad Patzek
Jun 24 · 1h 25m

Nate HagensHOST
So maybe you can first tell us what is an El Nino and how a regular El Nino affects the climate.
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17:18Tad PatzekGUEST
Well, again, there are many excellent videos illustrating El Niño from a variety of sources, NOAA, NASA, PBS are some of them.
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17:30Tad PatzekGUEST
So very briefly, El Niño Southern Oscillation is a natural climate variability occurring in the equatorial Pacific.
T
17:51Tad PatzekGUEST
And if it overshoots, it goes the other way to La Nina, which is the opposite to El Nino.
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17:59Tad PatzekGUEST
Now, in the normal state of the Pacific Ocean along the equator, the trade winds blow from the east to the west, and they are very strong and continuous.
16 MINS LATER
We Weren't Expecting This: What Does a Super El Niño Mean For the Climate? with Tad Patzek
17:09

Nate HagensHOST
So maybe you can first tell us what, what is an El Niño and how a regular El Niño a- affects the climate.
T
17:18Tad PatzekGUEST
Well, again, um, there are many excellent videos illustrating, uh, El Niño from a variety of sources.
T
17:30Tad PatzekGUEST
So very briefly, El Niño Southern Oscillation is a natural climate variability occurring in the equatorial Pacific, and it occurs every four to seven years or three to seven years, and then the planet goes back to the normal state, and if it overshoots, it goes the other way, uh, to La Niña, uh, which is the opposite to El Niño.
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17:59Tad PatzekGUEST
Now, uh, i- in the normal state of the Pacific Ocean, uh, uh, al- along the equator, uh, the trade winds blow from the east to the west.
T
18:17Tad PatzekGUEST
And these winds drag water across the Pacific and push the, the water towards Australia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea.
39 MINS LATER
P
Unknown podcast
Why Each American Lives Like a 40-Ton Whale: Power, Overshoot, and Climate with Tad Patzek
May 6 · 1h 35m
T
41:42Tad PatzekGUEST
Uh, uh, so it, it's everything together, right? So extreme events can be temperature, can be rain, can be flood, can be wildfire, can be many things.
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41:53Tad PatzekGUEST
So all of them together suddenly, uh, follow different statistics or the so-called statistics of extremes, which are actually richly represented in my book, uh, and explained in an appendix.
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42:08Tad PatzekGUEST
Um, so your Gaussian, your bell curve to which you are used no longer holds, and that Gaussian curve actually basically informs people that events removed from the mean by more than two, three standard deviations, uh, are completely impossible in practice, are improbableThe, the extreme events statistics say that these distributions don't have the fast declining, uh, tails of a Gaussian distribution by the so-called fat tails.
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42:49Tad PatzekGUEST
And so the extreme events in these fat tails have actually appreciable probabilities of happening.
23 MINS LATER

Nate HagensHOST
But what, what sort of a metabolism might be reasonably sustainable, uh, for humans, especially if we continue to innovate and find alternative sources, et cetera, relative to today's, let's just call it twenty terawatts?
Why Each American Lives Like a 40-Ton Whale: Power, Overshoot, and Climate with Tad Patzek
65:52
T
41:42Tad PatzekGUEST
Uh, uh, so it, it's everything together, right? So extreme events can be temperature, can be rain, can be flood, can be wildfire, can be many things.
T
41:53Tad PatzekGUEST
So all of them together suddenly, uh, follow different statistics or the so-called statistics of extremes, which are actually richly represented in my book, uh, and explained in an appendix.
T
42:16Tad PatzekGUEST
And that Gaussian curve actually basically informs people that events removed from the mean by more than two, three standard deviations, um, are completely impossible in practice, are improbableThe, the extreme events statistics say that these distributions don't have the fast declining, uh, tails of a Gaussian distribution by the so-called fat tails.
23 MINS LATER

Nate HagensHOST
But what, what sort of a metabolism might be reasonably sustainable, uh, for humans, especially if we continue to innovate and find alternative sources, et cetera, relative to today's, let's just call it twenty terawatts?