Survation

Reform didn't really get a bounce out of theirs, and all the problems that Nigel Farage and co. had over the summer appear to be coming home to roost.

But then you open the pages of The Guardian, where Survation and 38 Degrees have done their own survey, and that gives Labour 272 seats and Reform on 153.

The Tory's only on 85, which is obviously, um, you know, uh, 30 odd down on where they are at the moment.

Lib Dems interestingly in both holding pretty steady in that kind of 60, 70 range, and you know, this is a, if the Tories really are to get back into it, they've got to start squeezing that Lib Dem number.

And so Reform obviously are circulating one of these.

The Conservative Party is circulating the other.

And actually in the second one, the Survation one, if you put Labour and the Lib Dems together, they would have 241 seats, which is a majority of about 30 or thereabouts.

And you can just about function with that, um, for a while anyway.

Um, so if we look at the first poll of the Burnham era essentially, which was conducted exclusively for us by Find Out Now, that found that a second referendum would see Scotland votes become independent by 52% to 48% with don't knows removed.

And there was another poll, uh, more recently run by Survation for Diffley Partnership, um, which also found the same split in favor of independence, again, with don't knows removed.

So it certainly looks like [laughs] from some of, you know, the evidence that's out there that Scotland could well back independence.

I know we, it is still right on that line, but if you also look, th- think back to, you know, the campaign leading up to the 2014 referendum, support was sort of at, at the start was round about sort of 20-something percent, wasn't it? And look how much it climbed to 45.