... a little bit cheaper on his, on his post-rookie deal?

I mean, the easy answer is it looks like whatever he wants it to look like, right? It's here's a piece of paper, write in the number, write in the term within the rules and, and we'll get back to you.

And, uh, you know, I don't know how much trickier it'll be.

I think if that number starts with a, uh, you know, I think this, it'll be a seven-year max by then, but if it starts with seven years, then everyone on the aisle side is sort of, um, jumping and dancing and happy.

And if it, the number starts with a, uh, three or a five, it might set off some alarm bells.

Um, but yeah, you know, it, it's sort of like bartender's choice.

If he wants to leave a little bit money on the table, either because, A, um, he trusts management and ownership to use that money judiciously to build around him, or B, maybe he just has the mindset of, uh, you know, like Don Basley, who was an agent back in the day, often advised his players don't always go for the maximum amount of money.

... for the tax advantages that Sun Belt teams have." Why haven't we heard that from the big market teams?

For those that weren't with us on, on that day for that show, can you go over why that is such a crucial day now that Leo Carlsson is back with the Anaheim Ducks?

Sure.

So the quick rewind is that this offer sheet is front-loaded, which means there's a massive signing bonus, um, like today-ish, of 18 or 19 million cash and then there's another one on the first day of the 2027-28 league year of another 18 million or so.

What does that mean? Two things, right? One, Henry Sam Ueli has to cut two very big checks.

But number two, after he ch- cuts that second check on or about July 2nd, 2027, Leo Carlsson's base salary for that league year drops to $1 million and his average cash remaining over the final four years drops to, like, 12.5 million, which is super, um, manageable.

And so what we talked about, and this may or may not happen, and it probably won't because Leo's a great player and they may wanna keep him and put water under the bridge, but if not, um, you know, if Anaheim chooses to move him, the time to do it would be after paying that second bonus where he's a one million cash player and he has no trade prot- no no trade protection.

He can be traded at will by Anaheim, um, you know, any time that season or until the final year.

Um, when you look at how now toolboxes are being used fully, uh, w- what's the, like, what's the, the, the next sort of, uh, the, what's the cascade from a manager's point of view? I've looked at a lot of this and said, one of the common denominators is not so much did I play left wing for four years in Swift Current, it's did I go to law school? Like, how do you look at, like, who are going to be the next successful managers in the NHL?

Where are you leaning at this point?

I think they're gonna match.

I think it's an easy decision.

Um, I think it would've been an easy decision in any scenario, but I think there's a little wrinkle in the way this offer sheet's structured that when Henry Samwelli and his advisors, including his hockey guys, take some time, are gonna say, "We have a couple outs here." And that's in how the signing bonuses are set up.

Now, you know, typically you front load a contract or you front load an offer sheet to deter the other team from matching, right? Because you're loading all this money up front, more money's tougher to match.

But if the Ducks look at this closely, there's a huge signing bonus of eighteen million in year one.

There's a huge signing bonus on July two, twenty twenty-seven.

There's a lot of due diligence behind the scenes just beyond that, that, than, than meets the eye, correct?

Let's get into all the most interesting considerations here, break it down for both teams' respective, but I think specifically the Ducks' decision over the next week or so here in terms of whether to match or not.

Sure.

Yeah, that's a great lead in.

Um, you know, I, I, I think my shortest answer is I think Anaheim does match.

Um, and there's a bunch of reasons why.

Um, like, I'm gonna tell you from Leo's angle, and then I'll tell you what I think the Ducks are gonna do.

Like, from Leo's angle, this is obviously very exciting, right? Your agent and a team come to you and offer you this contract that sounds like it's in, you know, significant excess of what Anaheim was willing to pay.

Right.

Right.

I'm sitting there and I'm probably asking myself, "Where is there a leverage point in this offer sheet where down the line I have power once again?" Because right now I've been put, you know, behind a gun where it's been very publicized that, you know, other teams and agents think, you know, my team is cheap, my GM and AGM are hard to deal with.

I've been hit with not only, to your point, a strategic offer sheet for a great player that's $18 million AAV over five years, but also with sort of like- You know, a little bit of a bully ball where it's front-loaded with, you know, an $18 or $19 million signing bonus on day one, and then another $18 or $19 million signing bonus onto the first year of the 2027-28 season, which means, as a lot of people have hit on, you have to pay out almost $40 million in the first 365 or so days if you wanna keep this player.

And it's tempting to think, wow, that's going to make it harder for Anaheim to match, but that's actually where I think the flaw is.

And if I was advising Henry, here's what I would say.

What next for Philly? Do you figure you're now moving with a target on your back?

Um, like maybe, but I think you should feel like you're always moving with a target on your back if you're a good manager.

And I think to something you've talked about recently, um, with the trend in both ownership and, you know, GMs as well to maybe a way of the, uh, old boys club, more of, you know, the, the next Derek Tolски or Isaac Sonnet or, you know, John Draper coming back in, um, you're gonna have that mark on your back whether or not you throw an offer sheet at a, uh, Leo Carlsson.

And what they've done as a result of that is not only accumulate all these assets, but maintain that flexibility you're talking about that's going to allow them to keep scaling up as soon as this off-season.

Yeah, I think that's all right.

And like, let me use that as a jumping off point to talk about someone else in that front office.

Like, we often hear people talk about analytics and just like, oh, what, what guys drive shot differential or this or that, and whether or not that's, you know, the be all and end all, and, and it clearly isn't, but it's clearly also super helpful.

Um, Carolina uses it also for tactics, for like strict on-ice tactics, which are p- you know, you need a real good, um, hockey background to think about these kind of things.

And what I'm talking about is like, you know, a guy who I know you know well is Tyler Dellow, who's the assistant GM there, who, who's sort of like, you know, one of the original analytics writers.

Let me tell you a funny story about him that ties back into something in a second.

They're essentially gonna have the same team probably with another impact player or two on top of it.

[laughs]

Um, you know, I was a lawyer by training, sort of stereotypical Canadian lawyer.

Um, you know, big hockey fan, sports fan growing up.

Um, went, went to work in New York at a big corporate law firm, uh, for five or six years d- doing corporate law.

Represented, uh, sort of any sports related deal I, I could get into.

Um, you know, NBA, baseball, whatever.

Um, and then five years into being a lawyer in New York, uh, one of the partners at my, uh, first firm and, and one of his former clients, uh, were looking into buying a team, and, and they came to me and, and to Joycey independently, who I didn't know at the time, um, and said, "Hey guys, we're looking at buying this hockey team.

Like, this should be a big F you to Larkin that, like, "We didn't need you to make the playoffs," instead of, like, a total reset.

Mm-hmm.

Yeah, I, I mean, you know, I know you're a big Knicks guy, and, and this run's been incredible.

Um, a- and with that too, like, you know, when we talk about coaches, it's, it's the short shelf life, right? Like, that's kinda been the, the new wave of NHL coaching.

And when you were in Florida, I, uh, you were there the year that they had fi- or you guys had fired Gallant, right? Like, that was the year that you were with the Panthers.

Like, I feel like, and, and we were talking about this last week 'cause we had him on our Tri-State show, he was kind of that first coach who really got the, you know, three-year window from team to team.

Like, he got it in Florida and in Vegas with New York.

Like, he was maybe the, the, it's kind of a negative, but like the trailblazer or trendsetter for that.

Like, this should be a big F you to Larkin that, like, "We didn't need you to make the playoffs" instead of, like, a total reset.

Like, I think that people are-- Like you said, they're making fun of it, but, like, it's why, why are you making fun of it? This guy's doing a lot of, you know, good business-

No, and yeah.

Yeah, I mean, listen, like he, you know, he went to Ivey, which is one of the best, best business school in Canada, or one of them.

Um, and, and, you know, then had some business success as well.

And, and the point there is, like, there's a clear scoreboard, right, in, in the business world, and that doesn't translate to hockey always.

But you can't sort of just have a media guy come out and say, like, "Hey, Keith's a great operator." Or, "Keith's a great, you know, money manager," because there, there's a dollar value out there and, and there's a success and there's winners and losers, and it can't just be sort of, um, manufactured out of thin air.

Whereas it's very easy to make a few friends, um, in the football media or in the hockey media who come out and say, "Wow, Keith's really shrewd.

So what are your thoughts just on how Vancouver handled this off-season and where you think they're kind of going moving forward?

(laughs)

It might not handle the hills.

Anyway, um, I have two very different thoughts about this.

Like, the first one is, I think under the situation, under the, you know, the time pressures and everything else, Vancouver made the right deal.

They made the best deal.

I think Zeb Boukiam is a awesome hockey player with an awesome upside and that is what you want.

I think the only way Vancouver could even consider how to recover from losing a Quinn Hughes with years to go is by adding a Zeb Boukiam and ideally also adding a Keegan Verhoff, who I saw play, you know, live in UND a couple weeks ago who's phenomenal.

It's players from the New Jersey Devils who may have been asked to waive their no trade clauses, who under other circumstances might...

(laughs)

It might not have all the hills.

Anyway, um, I have two very different thoughts about this.

Like, the first one is, I think under the situation, under the- you know, the time pressures and everything else, Vancouver made the right deal.

They made the best deal.

I think Zieb Buiam is a awesome hockey player with an awesome upside, and that is what you want.

I think the only way Vancouver could even consider how to recover from losing a Quinn Hughes with years to go is by adding a Zieb Buiam and ideally also adding a Keegan Verhoff, who I saw play, you know, live in the UND a couple weeks ago who's phenomenal.

Yeah.