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Simon Pittaway

Simon Pittaway

Jul 20, 2026

7:56
Yeah
7:56
... that they face.
7:58
Um, and so we've done an exercise to update the OBR's latest forecast for things that have changed since then, and where that might leave this kind of magic number of headroom.
8:08
Um, and the things that have mainly gone on are on the growth and interest rate side.
8:14
So we've taken the Bank of England's middle scenario for the impact of the Iran war, and we've looked at what's happened to interest rates and financial markets, um, and a few other things going on as well, which we might get into.
8:27
But, um, altogether, that's hit, uh, the, the headroom buffer that they had of about 24 billion by 14 billion to leave them with an estimated buffer of about 10 billion, uh, which is not loads.
8:41
Um, it's not the lowest it's ever been.

6 MINS LATER

14:45
Yeah

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