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Sebastian Dittgen

Analyst on the Analytical Development and Training Team at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, focusing on geopolitical forecasting with a regional focus on Africa.

Oct 16, 2026

1:19
So can you just give us an update on what's going on there?
1:22
Yes, of course, Milos.
1:24
So, former President Joseph Kabila has announced that he will be spearheading the new group called the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation.
1:35
This is going to replace the Congo River Alliance, which was a loose consortium of militia groups, including the including the M23, a military group backed implicitly by Rwanda, according to UN reports, although Rwanda denies it.
1:54
This group has had territorial and economic control over the eastern DRC for around two years now.
2:02
This group will be absorbed by Kabila's new political movements here.
2:07
And it really changes the landscape.

5 MINS LATER

7:35
The first is what type of international support is the FRN getting, if any? What is kind of the broader geopolitical concerns? Does this have the potential to turn into a proxy conflict? And the second thing is, in terms of their current military standing, what type of actual capabilities does the FRN and Kabila have to meaningfully attack the state? And is there any type of possibility that it looks like they might actually be able to make significant inroads?
5:56
And I think Sebastian, you wanted to pick that up there.
5:59
Yeah, I mean, Venezuela is kind of a different situation than many of these countries in the U.S. Americas because you have, whereas you see diversification economically in Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and many others, they used to have stronger economic ties with the U.S. Venezuela, on the other hand, has been making many energy deals, whether it's through gas, oil, and through energy.
6:26
coal, critical minerals.
6:28
Deals are being made left and right with private sector firms in the U.S. We've also seen recent deals with Qatari, England-based firms.
6:37
And while many citizens domestically in Venezuela might be opposed to what some might say is the extraction of resources without much in return domestically, From the U.S. standpoint, this is a major swing in the relations economically and also diplomatically with Venezuela.
7:00
And this will continue into Q4.
7:02
We'll see some large deals.

25 MINS LATER

31:41
So maybe a bit outside the scope of of this podcast but you know there as well i'll say that you know next year we've got the french elections coming up and there's very similar fears happening on on that front so we'll be we'll be keeping an eye out on signals you know polling all that kind of stuff as we finish off this year sebastian
1:23
So, Sebastian, just giving you the floor here, what can you tell us about what the latest on that front is? And if I can ask already, why do you think this is happening now as opposed to before?
1:36
So thank you so much, Milos.
1:38
So this week, we've seen some serious escalation in northern Ethiopia.
1:44
It's a renewal of conflict that harkens back to 2022 when there was a large-scale civil war.
1:52
in the same region.
1:53
Some of the same actors are there.
1:54
You have the Tigray People's Liberation Front, the TPLF, that has announced as of Monday that they are combining forces in a coalition of six other insurgent groups in the region, some of which actually they fought against in the civil war.

7 MINS LATER

9:11
What I'm curious about is have we seen any direct support or any perhaps impending support from any foreign states, either to the Ethiopian government or toward the rebel groups?

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