[laughs]

I mean, it's crazy.

This is one of the craziest runs I think I've ever seen in my life.

What is this, like thirty-four and three the last thirty-seven? It's, it's ridiculous.

I think I saw their batting average on balls in play during this streak.

It was like five forty-six.

That is outrageous.

What's one piece of information your trading team reacts to the fastest? And you know what, actually, conversely, what information would you say bettors consistently overweight?

I don't wanna slow you down, brother.

I'm...

H- let's get it out of the way, I am slowly but surely buying this Jets roster.

I think they can be favored in as many as six games this year.

I think this schedule's very manageable for them, and this defense that was god awful last year, the floor's been raised with a lot of veteran pieces, and David Bailey going second overall, and I think the offense can be capable as long as Geno Smith is- isn't throwing the most picks in the league.

I think he's got a lot of help, more than he had last year.

Love the Lions this year.

Good question.

[laughs]

Like, you think about those KD, Kyrie, Harden teams.

How many games did those three play together, [laughs] like, in the regular season? I, I, I think it's gonna be way less than 50, but...

And again, it's, it, it's just a...

It's weird, 'cause this is a different LeBron James, you know? Like, this isn't, you know, like, the Heat getting him the first time around.

Um, so I, he- I think he's still a very, obviously very good player, and he's gonna be a huge contributor for them, but I, I...

You do wonder how often all five of those guys are gonna be on the floor at the same time.

Are there, are there ways where you can, might find an edge there and, uh, and, and grab a more favorable position based on, you know, some research you can do on your own?

Um, uh, uh, it, are, are, are bettors ignoring Argentina's attack, or is, is it oddsmakers expecting Spain to control tempo? Which, which is truer to you?

It's the latter.

This is all game script, if you will.

Spain is not gonna let Argentina have the ball very much.

I think that's where England really kind of fell apart, is in that semifinal, was just going so defensively after they scored.

If Spain goes up one-nil, I can't imagine they're gonna be sitting back in their own box just eating pressure.

I think they're gonna control the ball for a lot of this game and not let Mes- the best defense is just not letting Messi touch the ball, and if there's one team that is excellent at executing that game plan, it's going to be Spain.

What's your Seamus Special this week?

[laughs]

It, it...

Frankly, I'm, I'm fine with it.

Um, you know, McGregor's going off at, you know, decent odds right now, so we'll, we'll see if it's a, if it's a mirror image of, you know, his previous fights, uh, that we've seen.

So, uh, but I, I do wanna go back to that, that USA subject because everyone likes to say after the game that the USA, "Oh, well, clearly we should've been favored.

The books only had them favored 'cause they were taking so much US action." I disagree.

This team got s- USA got steamed after the lineups came out.

What does threading the needle look like? I know you need Holloway, but in terms of how many rounds? Is it a stoppage? If you could thread it perfectly, what do you think the outcome would look like for you guys at BetMGM?

What is it in terms of same-game parlays that you see compared to cross-sport parlays? Meaning, if someone's all on the Knicks, do you see a lot more same-game parlays where it's like, give me Brunson to hit two threes, give me OG to score X amount of points, or do they just take a layer of the Knicks and then build it with something else in another sport? What's the ratio in terms of same-game parlays compared to cross-sport parlays that you see over there?

I think you definitely see more same-game parlays than the cross-sport ones these days, especially on something like the NBA, even baseball now.

But I will say where it gets muddied up is the cross-sport same-game parlay pluses you see, where it's, you know, I'm going to have the Knicks money line, Brunson 30 points.

I'm going to have the Yankees money line, Ben Rice to hit two bases, and then I'm going to have Brazil money line.

And Rafinha to score, that's where you get a lot of, you start to see it a lot.

I mean, for as bad as, like, Knicks outright has been in a lot of these games, we're getting saved on same-game parlay results just because, like, you're having, like, poor shooting nights from a number of players, a lot of, like, poor three-point shooting nights.

So SGPs have kind of saved the day for us in a lot of these games.

Where are you taking us, Seamus?

All right, these freaking Knicks, huh? Have they been good for business at BetMGM or bad for business these first two games? And what do you need to happen in game three, at least projecting when it rolls around here on Monday night? Knicks minus two and a half as we sit here and speak right now.

Good to be back, fellas.

I mean, that's a pretty loaded question, how the Knicks have been for the books here.

Because it goes a little both ways.

I mean, the handle's been phenomenal on these games.

And honestly, the first two game results, they weren't that bad.

Like, we took a lot of Knicks money for sure.

Are you surprised that we haven't increased the Knicks number at all and given them a little bit more love in the market?

Are you going like, fingers crossed, let's go for the, the road dog over here in game three?

Hey, guys.

Good to be back.

Uh, I mean, the way the Knicks are playing right now, we're gonna need the Cavs at BetMGM pretty much every game going forward.

Um, people can't, can't get enough betting the Knicks, so especially a- as a dog going on the road.

But, you know, I think you see the Cavs minus two and a half.

Y- it's a little bit of, you know, it should be one-one.

Uh, what, what's your take on SGA? Is he one of the more underrated superstars in the league right now?

How much can I bet against James Harden? Can you give me a dollar figure, right? Is there a cap on this here?

Oh my, unlimited.

I mean, it's, it's pretty crazy what's going on here.

I didn't, I didn't really get the trade when Cleveland made it in, in the middle of the season, just 'cause you see every other team try to do it with Harden, and they just can't do it.

And then he's just a liability on defense it looks like right now.

So I-- Cleveland's in a tough spot here.

Um, I-- In terms of what the book needs here, we've been doing all right on these games.

OKC, uh, OKC is still favored to win the championship here, but in your opinion, how much is that their actual dominance, and how much of that is they just feel like the safest team left on the board?

Do you think that do you think that's the reason why it feels like game sevens are priced differently or are they not?

I think it all depends on the matchup.

I think like all else equal, you'll see a total maybe a little shorter than what it's been typically throughout the series because it is a lot tighter.

Maybe the spread's a little tighter in game seven.

But like today, like game seven, Celtics minus eight and a half.

Pistons minus eight and a half in a game seven.

Cavs minus eight and a half.

But if you're just waiting, is it the rare day where the under's actually the more bet on side by the public in a Game 7 of an NBA game?

Do you see a way to attack the Masters at this point with the final two days looming here, Seamus, whether it's Rory or anybody else? Anything that you like Masters-wise?

Hey, guys, good to be back.

Um, yeah, it's tough.

It's hard to see Rory choking this lead away.

I mean, it's the biggest lead after two rounds we've ever seen, and he looks dialed in as he's ever been.

So there's a few markets you can pick at.

You know, there is a winner without Rory market posted with us and a few other shops.

Hmm.

I- is, has the public made their claim in, in any direction so far with either of these games? Over, under? Uh, side total with, uh, any, uh, of the games tonight?

We're gonna be the unders in these games.

A lot of over money coming in, which could be expected, honestly, this, come this weekend of the year.

But in terms of the action on the game, I, it's a lot of Arizona money line coming in.

I think the book would like to see Michigan win regardless.

It's a really, really good res- on the futures book.

So it'd be nice to have that going into a championship game with Michigan.

If, if Illinois wins it all, do we start seeing a lot more teams playing copycat and scouring for international players, where they don't have a perceived edge to start their recruiting process, but they may end up building, who knows, the next championship roster with, you know, Eastern Bloc players?

What is your strongest opinion now that we're down to eight teams?

My gut feeling after the bracket came out, that Michigan was going to win the National Championship.

And I know Tennessee's in the Elite Eight, but I really haven't been that impressed.

Like, I know it might sound bitter 'cause they beat my Hoos in the second round, but that wasn't the best game UVA played.

I thought there was some Dubious officiating late in that game.

Uh, you know, Iowa State did have Josh Jefferson last game, and Michigan, they can- this is an offense that can just name their number.

They, they can hit whatever they want.

[laughs]

Is that something that you expect or is that just kind of pie in the sky, the pros are just kind of talking amongst themselves something they think and it's not actually materializing in the market right now?

I think you saw this take place on Thursday and yesterday.

Uh, I think I saw a stat going around the other week, uh, this is the first time ever all top four seeds in all four regions were double-digit favorites.

I think the inflation's here and it, it might be here to stay.

Uh, but we'll...

Th- th- this changes week to week, year to year.

Whether you like it, whether you like the, the chalk or not, upsets or, or not, we're gonna get a really good second weekend in terms of quality of basketball.

Yeah

Mm.

A lot of just great match-ups.

You know, we, we touched on UVA, Duke.

This UConn, St. John's rivalry this year, it feel, feels like they've been on a collision course all year.

That's gonna be an awesome atmosphere tonight at six thirty at The Garden.

Big 12 Championship, that's gonna be a great game.

Even Wisconsin, Michigan, it's a very interesting one.

What do you think?

Like, there's still so much more pieces of the puzzle left to put into place, but we're starting to get some of the corners kind of situated now with some of these big moves early on in the process.

Yeah, that's the thing.

W- this far out from the actual season starting, before we even kick a football, you do got a lot of wiggle room.

Like, you can move a number, and then the market will tell you pretty soon, you know, whether that number's right or not.

So, you know, uh, the Ravens getting Max Crosby, we moved from 12 to one to 10 to one for the Super Bowl.

Noticeable for some at least.

Uh, but some of you can just kinda tell, like, this is a big deal for the Ravens.

Same for the Raiders and the Ravens and, and really even the Patriots for the headache that they may have removed from their roster.

You like a side or a total in either of those top two games?

games?Well, you guys know my feelings about my Wahoos, but, uh, it is a lot of points there in Durham today, um, for a Virginia team that is playing very well at the moment.

But Duke at home this year has just been a force.

I mean, I think they beat Notre Dame by almost 50 [laughs] in midweek.

So it's, it's tough to really fade Duke here.

So I guess I turn more to Arizona and Kansas, and I think my gut leans Arizona laying nine and a half against Kansas.

I don't know how many minutes I'm gonna get out of Peterson, v- like, if he's gonna pull this stuff where he's cramping, and he comes out, and Kansas has to play without him for a whole half.

What, what would you say the there is, if there is something there with Duke?

Like you, you get this, this immediate reaction to something overnight and then you wake up in the morning and you're like, "Man, I just can't bet Houston anymore." Like how often than not do those games land in that middle area where you get a four and a half, five and six are pretty common, uh, landing numbers in, in basketball, but it, it's just, you have to show discipline in these spots because when a game moves two points, you know, I'm not saying odds are it's gonna land in that spot, but it happens more often than you think.

Here's the thing with college basketball, these lines move like crazy, especially before March, typically right now.

And when you see a line move like that, I mean, it's up to everyone.

Like you could see minus five and a half.

You could have it lined at minus seven and a half if you're really that high on Houston.

But at the same time, you have to go both ways.

Is it too many points? Does, d- what number makes you wanna bet Arizona now? It all comes down to your, you know, your preference of the team, whether you think the markets move too much.

Mm.

Hmm

... you know, taken some heat off of anything we've taken on the Seahawks minus four and a half.

We'll see what action we get the next, uh, you know, the next 48 hours, uh, to see with the low vig.

Uh, but the, uh, in terms of the money line, we're in a pretty decent spot with the money line.

There's a lot of things you gotta consider with, you know, who's gonna win the game because not only your futures, you have parlays where the last leg is either the Patriots or the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, and then you have the game spread.

So it's, it's kind of a little finicky to, to figure out, but right now the, the game money line isn't that crazy right now.

The spread right now, going low vig, we've actually taken a lot more pass money to kind of wash out a lot of the Seahawks liability.

When, when there is a lot of in-game betting happening, is that a more advantageous time to place a wager?

Mm-hmm.

Uh, under 40.

We did take a pretty big bet on under 45 and a half last week.

But come kickoff, I mean, with the amount of same game parlays and player prop bets that we're gonna be having all on overs and people to do things in the game, we're really looking for a dull affair in the Super Bowl.

When it comes to a side or the money line, now the, the Seahawks are, uh, you know, a, a liability on our futures book, but we've taken a lot of past money line, uh, more so than we thought we'd see this early.

It's really too early to tell which side we're definitely gonna need.

I- it's, it's something we're kind of debating here, you know, among the risk team, like what do we think the need's gonna be come Sunday? Like, I think there is a world where there might not be that big of a need, like I think, 'cause I've, it's, the action coming in, it's, it's not 50/50 necessarily, but I'm seeing a lot more Patriots action than I thought I was going to.

Is that, is that a dumb strategy, or is there any merit to it?

Hmm.

And there is some sharp belief that maybe that opening number, definitely the opening number was a little high, 'cause we opened five and a half, and we've since ticked down to four and a half, but it's still one-way traffic we're seeing on the Patriots on Sunday.

I, I really think that's gonna determine how we do this weekend as a, as a sportsbook.

If the Broncos can at the very least cover that spread-

Yeah.

The, the, the Rams and Seahawks have played, you know, some really meaningful games against some really, uh, a- against playoff teams, and the Patriots haven't really been tested.

You know, they beat the Bills in Buffalo, but then they also choked a three touchdown lead to Buffalo later in the year.

Uh, you know, the Chargers, some people were 50/50 on how good they were.

Like, can, can they make the Super Bowl?

I think they can make it.

I, I think they can win the Super Bowl.

I, uh, th- they're getting the QB play.

I think Lawrence has been...

I mean, any other year you'd think he'd have a shot at an MVP shout.

And then I think the defense has actually been a little bit more underrated as well.

I know that might be in the weeds for some of our audience, but can you explain why maybe Indiana being a good result in the futures market might actually make them a more favorable bet straight up in the game next Monday?

Who do you like the most? Wha-- If you go with, you know, a side in either of the two games or a total in either of the two games, is there anything that you really like at this point?

I, I can't get off this Ole Miss train.

[laughs] I know Miami looked awesome last week.

Um, one of the best games you'll see a team play this year.

But I mean, Chambliss, I think he's been great all year.

Um, I think he's a few games away, a couple games away from being on the stage for the Heisman Trophy.

Um, but I, I really like Ole Miss plus three and a half.

It's a Ben Johnson revenge game, and Chicago can't get off of a three-point favorite? Like, how much is the market disrespecting Chicago in this spot, Seamus?

Ohio State favored by 9.5. Any leans for you? Anything that you like in terms of a side of those eight teams? Which team do you like the most with the point spread in mind?

I've been high on Texas Tech all year.

That's probably my strongest lean that I have personally.

This Indiana-Alabama game, I am right at the number.

If I had to pick a side there, I think I'd lean towards Indiana.

But I think Miami can hang around with this defense, with Ohio State.

Maybe Miami first half is a better play than a full game.

Could Seamus go from like backwoods football games to the NFL, like as mainstream as it gets? Where are you taking us for the Seamus special today, buddy?

Is there a biggest need on the board of these three games for you guys at BetMGM today?

Hey, guys, great to be back.

We had a couple large wagers on Miami just yesterday, so really excited.

Forces our hand, and the need is going to be Texas A&M to cover three and a half.

Five to four with a lot of people buying an extra half point there.

Really, the whole day is probably going to come down to Texas A&M covering.

We're going to end up needing these big dogs to cover.

Do you feel like those are differences leading up to the game that will, I don't know, impact the number or even the bets that you're going to see or the action that you're going to take? Or has that all been settled and you're not expecting anything major leading up to kickoff?