Scott Rubner

Though Steph paints the bigger picture story, which is still decidedly bullish, there's just no two ways around it.

Which you wanna lean into more right now? I, I go back to what we mentioned yesterday from Citadel Securities, Scott Rubner, highest conviction he says.

Highs are in for the month.

Mid-month really starts the weakness seasonally.

So that's having an impact as we know.

I want to start there, um, because I have highlighted Citadel's Scott Rubner and his notes over the last month.

Excellent.

He says his highest conviction right now, why I ask the question at the very top of the program, are we w- at risk of a, a correction? He says the highs are in for the month.

Longer term, yes.

But earnings are behind us outside of Oracle, let's say, and Adobe, which I'm sure we'll talk about.

I mean, I may not be Scott Rubner at Citadel and have all those GPUs at my fingertips, but I do have history.

And if you go back, Scott, to 1962, every midterm, there's, like, been 16 midterms between now and the midterms, we've had a peak to trough decline of between seven and then, like, in the '70s it was, like, 28%.

You're all of a sudden bearish.

And I would frankly use what I think is the perfect counter to that from what we mentioned yesterday from Citadel Securities and Scott Rubner, who says, yes, the risk reward has changed.

would use some strength to reduce exposure, but then says this is a reset.

It's not a change fundamentally to the trend or fundamentally to the story.

Yes.

From many different corners, Citadel Security, Scott Rubner.

I highlighted a lot of this on halftime.

I'm going to do it again because he says the near term risk reward has changed.

What the Fed does and what signals is going to be very important.

And of course, what's happening with inflation, stickiness, oil prices is going to be day-to-day movements that the market focuses on.

All right, Malcolm, near term risk reward has changed, says Scott Rubner, Citadel Securities, as I mentioned with Tom already.

You agree with that? Are you on Team Lee?

And in the Wall Street research corner, retail traders are heading into September running on fumes when it comes to buying dips.

According to Citadel Securities' Scott Rubner, retail net buying on S&P five hundred down days in September has averaged roughly half the all-month pace since twenty nineteen, the weakest showing of any month on the calendar.

The slowdown isn't confined to dip buying, though.

September has historically posted both the lowest share of annual retail net notional and the lowest directional skew of any month on Citadel's platform, reinforcing the sense that retail activity broadly downshifts as summer ends.

Um, Citadel having the best performance it's had in since 2022 in the month of June, um, I think a 5% return in June.

Um, and then on August 11th, roughly two weeks after absorbing Asher Burner's distess- distressed portfolio, Citadel Securities derivatives strategy head, Scott Rubner, published a note telling clients the leverage reset had largely run its course and that systemic buyers were preparing to reload on the exact type of high beta semiconductor names that had just been liquidated, citing leveraged ETF assets crashing 42% and semiconductor leveraged ETFs shrink- shrinking to just 31 billion.

Then this week, Citadel disclosed Cit- uh, Griff- Ken Griffin disclosed that Citadel had already shed more than 80% of that risk through over 100 block trades worth more than four billion.

So basically, who eats at the end of the day? Ken Griffin.