What do you see with Addison?

Yeah.

So from kind of like a higher level at this game, like a 10,000-foot view, I do expect there to be maybe some more passing, some more scoring, uh, than the market does for a couple of reasons.

Uh, one, the Packers have been really successful whenever they have passed.

They've been a top three team by EPA per drop back.

Uh, but they just haven't done it much, because they love feeding the ball to Josh Jacobs.

They can't do that during this game.

Yeah

Um, so anything you want to lay the groundwork for, for people to understand with these league winners, um, that might be kind of assumed for you and I [chuckles] before we quickly dig into the, the round by round, um, player analysis?

Yeah.

I think just to give, like, a small overview very quick, like crash course in just what we're looking for at each position in terms of what attributes do these league-winning players most often have.

At the quarterback position, they are usually hypermobile.

They are running a lot.

Running is a cheat code in fantasy football.

Shoutout Rich Hrebicek, the Konami Code.

Where do you land on Loveland? Is there a point in the draft where you're, you're comfortable taking him or think that he could be a league winning pick?

So- so what are, what- what are your thoughts on this, number two, not knowing upside wins championships? Would you have framed that any better than I did?

You framed it pretty well.

I might frame it a little differently just from the perspective of understanding the range of outcomes of every draft pick that you make.

So especially when we get a- as you said, past round five or kind of what- whatever spot in the draft that you wanna pick to make this point, most of the draft picks that are being made in your league past round five, round six, and beyond, most of them will not matter much at all.

Most of them will end up as 10 to 12 point per game players that are all kind of the same as each other.

Uh, this is especially true, like at the wide receiver position, which is incredibly deep every single year with those types of guys, 8 to 12 points per game.

Running backs are a little different, but a lot of them will just kind of get mired down into these committees where there's not all that much fantasy va- value on any end of it.

What immediately springs to mind when hearing this topic?

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... together.

Uh, so now I'm in an interesting position.

Uh, I missed out completely on kind of the tier of running backs that I typically like to draft from if I don't start running back, running back.

So if I only get a Christian McCaffrey in round one and I don't get any of the guys I like in round two, usually I like to wait until this four or five turn because there, yeah, there's just a lot of strong running back bets, uh, in this range in my view.

Uh, but of course, Calston Loveland fell and I took the falling value and that means that I have to adjust.

And in this case, that is okay with me, uh, because we do have still on the board my kind of break glass in case of emergency running back, uh, and that's Rhamondre Stevenson So he's not a player I'm that interested in drafting.

Thank you

There we go.

I, I was kind of ranting about this on Twitter this morning, uh, that Theo's referring to, uh, where...

And, and to be clear, like, my, my engagement with, like, the cutting edge of the high stakes fantasy football ADP markets is basically that I follow Theo on Twitter.

I, I do not, uh, I'm not as plugged into this, uh, like, side of fantasy football nearly as much as Theo is.

Um, but yeah, my kind of perception from what I'd seen, uh, and, like, what other analysts were just tweeting in terms of where they're willing to rank Jonathan Brooks now, uh, was that people were putting him up kind of in that round five tier with a DeAndre Swift, with a Basile Tutin, uh, with, like, a Bucky Irving, like, all, all of those kind of running backs.

Uh, I was, I'm very against that.

I think Brooks is clearly a worse bet than anyone in that range.

Why don't you share sort of an, what an upside outcome season looks like for him, and the value he sort of presents to us in a potential flex role?

[laughs]

Yeah, I mean, that has been my, like, caveat with Parker Washington all off-season, and, and I got a lot of heat for not being, like, wanting to chase him up as much in best ball earlier in the off-season for basically this reason, right? Uh, we don't exactly know what the rotation will look like when Travis Hunter's coming on the field, even if we assume 11 personnel, uh, which I'm fine doing, because that, that has been kind of the Liam Cohen tendency for years is to be a very heavy 11 personnel type of offense.

Uh, so e- but even if we're assuming that, somebody's coming off the field whenever Travis Hunter is coming onto it.

So for a while, I was in, in a bit of a holding pattern, uh, with my Washington optimism, because my, like, initial inclination is always I want to project a team to continue doing the things that were working for their offense, right? And when Parker Washington was the number one receiver for the Jaguars, uh, averaging, uh, like fantasy wide receiver one levels of production, that was the best stretch ever of Trevor Lawrence's career.

That, just the offense was amazing.

It got them into the playoffs.

It was like a, just an amazing story.

So Ryan, the question is, do you think he can actually finish as, like, a top one, top three receiver in fantasy?

I shouldn't be speaking, sorry.

No.

I, I mean, you're, you're totally right.

Success rate, it, it's a boring boomer stat.

I, I'm totally with you on that vibes wise.

But the reason I think that this matters for a Bijan Tutun, and you can look at the list of players on screen, the highest success rates by rookie running backs over the past five years.

Almost every day three running back that has turned into anything or been handed a role at any point after their rookie season is on this list right now.

Um, Ryan, why don't you make your case for R.J. Harvey?

So let's talk through Treveyon Henderson, the upside and the downside case.

Yeah.

The upside case is very simple and straightforward to me on Treveyon Henderson.

Uh, this is a, a player that averaged 24.3 fantasy points per game on an 82% snap share in three games without Rhamondre Stevenson last year.

He was just a smash, high-end RB1.

He was amazing for fantasy in those games.

They were all against bad run defenses with the Patriots, like beating up on the Jets and the Bengals, if memory serves, but regardless, that, that's like such an amazing proof of concept.

Ryan, what's your thoughts on Emeka Egbuka this season going into his, his kinda new ADP? I think this ADP is gonna continue to rise with all the, uh, the f- you know, the Bucs kind of injuries they're dealing with.

I'm curious how he fits into this and what you're thinking about running back a little bit differently than last year maybe.

Yeah.

So I'm, I'm gonna start high level here, and I promise I'm gonna bring this back to Ken Walker.

Uh, a- and this applies to, like, a Colston Loveland too, and, like, a lot of the other names that maybe we've talked about that we're in- intrigued by throughout the summer.

Uh, uh I w- made like a very clear point to myself when I was writing this article to only write up guys that fit my league-winning criteria, all my research to delineate who does and who doesn't, uh, and to limit my write-ups to only 18 players.

Because that was one of my issues with my article last year, is I just wrote up too many guys.

I wanted to challenge myself to keep it to 18, the same number of league-winning players we saw last year, right? So at every position, there are lots of guys that fit these criteria, right? It's-- The-- I had b- at basically every position, I had no shortage of options.

Um, so what leads you to Kyler, and how does he kind of like epitomize everything that you're looking for in terms of league-winning quarterbacks?

One, what can we do to kind of identify some of these profiles? And then let's talk through the Kyron Williams Derangement Syndrome.

Yeah.

So what I did to kind of bucket out every running back is I, I just look at how much of their workload is dependent upon receiving because classically we think of receiving in PPR leagues as incredibly important for a running back, right? A target is worth two and a half times that of a carry in terms of the fantasy points it actually turns into.

In that format, it raises the floor and raises the ceiling of any running back that has a good passing down role, a high target share, right? And drafters are very much aware of that.

And what I found when I kind of bucketed out all of those archetypes, the heavy pass catchers, the guys kind of in the middle, the workhorses, uh, and the non-pass catchers, is that you can get ceiling outcomes from the guys on either extreme, right? The elite pass catchers and the non-pass catchers both against ADP have had strong ceiling outcomes over the past five seasons.

And I think that's because of, yes, pass catchers inherently have a lot of upside.

The non-pass catchers get punished by ADP because people, I think, perceive, yes, these guys are a little bit riskier.

Build quotes faster and source the materials you need to keep your jobs moving, just like that, at Lowe's.

Again, with your play caller piece, do you have some similar takeaways? 'Cause I know the Cardinals weren't lighting up scoreboards, but the run game was really good in 2023 and 2024 especially, and, you know, we did get, yeah, a lot of it in garbage time, but still some pretty good production from Jacoby and company last year, which I don't think should be completely taken for granted.

granted.Oh, yeah.

No, Petzing's run game is one of the most impressive in the NFL to me over the last couple of seasons.

Uh, by yards per carry, by EPA per rush, like any kind of rushing efficiency stat you wanna look at, he is first or second in the NFL, uh, and only ever second to, like, Todd Monken with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, [laughs] like that type of thing, right? It, it...

Yeah, like with the personnel he's had, he has done amazingly in the run game.

Uh, I've been less impressed by his passing games and, like, the just the design of his offense.

He hasn't used as much of, like, the under center play action, like, uh, motion, like all the play calling cheat codes.

Yeah

Okay.

But first I want to make, uh, like, a bone-to-pick type of comparison here, uh, because I'm glad you brought up the Rams.

I, I, I wanna say, there is a thing happening in the fantasy industry that I like to call Kyren Williams Derangement Syndrome, and I...

We're not talking about Kyren Williams on our list today, but I think this comparison is really important to understand.

Uh, Kyren Williams, while he is still the Rams' nominal starter, did have Blake Corum meaningfully cutting into his workload last year.

Uh, it- they were closer to, like, 60/40 by carries.

Kyren was still favored at the goal line and in the passing game, but just the overall workload was not super great.

[laughs]

What makes you, uh, in on Ladd this year?

Yeah.

So first of all, we've just gotta recognize that this offense could just be one of the most efficient in the NFL from a macro level, right? Uh, since 2022, Mike McDaniel has had Tua Tagovailoa ranking seventh best in adjusted net yards per attempt.

That's ahead of, like, every quarterback in the NFL that everybody agrees is better than Tua Tagovailoa, right? It's ahead of Drake May, Matt Stafford, Dak Prescott, everybody, right? So th- you add that to Justin Herbert and you kind of have to say, step back and say, "Okay, there's an outcome here where Justin Herbert just leads the NFL in passing touchdowns, that this offense leads the NFL in yards per attempt." And we, we have to kind of evaluate the pass catchers based on a- at least that ceiling outcome, having that in mind, right? So when I look to Ladd McConkie and I think about, okay, who are the receivers that can kind of push f- push efficiency here, push the big plays, I think the answer to that is Ladd.

Uh, he's like an incredibly underrated go ball and deep threat.

Uh, by yards per outrun, just on go routes down the field, he's fourth best since 2022.

He's just ahead of Tyreek Hill by yards per outrun on these deep go balls.

Oh.

I've been saying in a number of videos this is an awesome season for late-round quarterbacks, and this player is a big part of that.

Yeah.

The player I'm gonna talk about is Malik Willis.

Uh, and he really is one of the biggest reasons this year that I'm just never going to reach on a quarterback.

If all of my targets get selected ahead of me at the QB position, that's totally okay because in a normal 10 to 12 team redraft league that most of you guys are playing in, Malik Willis is just going to be there in the last round or two for you to select, and I'm totally comfortable with that just being my plan at QB going into the season because the upside is really strong for Willis as a runner.

Uh, over the past two seasons, 23.6 fantasy points per start with the Packers.

That's, of course, across three starts, but also that would have tied with Josh Allen for the most fantasy points per game of any quarterback last year.

Ryan, who's another player you're looking at late in drafts? I believe it's a running back.

You're also all in on the running back here.

Yeah.

Basal Tutin of the Jaguars, I am all in on, as you said.

Uh, and yeah, it does really start with I want pieces of this offense, right? Uh, so just to take you guys through this, uh, Liam Cohen, the Jaguars head coach, over the, the past two seasons ranked seventh in the NFL in total backfield expected fantasy points per game.

So what that just means is his backfields have seen the most valuable volume weighted for fantasy football.

Expected fantasy points is just a stat that gives credit for targets, for touches near the end zone.

Uh, we model it out.

Ryan, why don't you go ahead and get us started on a third-round, dead zone-ish type running back here?

I'm curious, is that too high for you where I have him ranked? That's a little bit below consensus.

Um, yeah.

That, I mean, that's probably about where I've got him, but it, like, realistically, am I more excited to click Jalen Waddle, Allen McConkie? Yeah.

Like, I, probably my final rankings, I'll have him behind...

I, I, I guess just in short, the, the take really is last year we were drafting Chris Olave in, like, round six, uh, as a guy that's had pretty good per route data over his career but never really put it all together from a production standpoint.

Uh, the offense, the environment gets better last year.

He does.

... get these to the mass, the masses here.

Talk to me about what you found with Mike McDaniel.

Yeah, I mean, you gave a great overview there, but just to hype the guy up a little more.

Uh, when it comes to our, our two biggest efficiency hacks, uh, play action drop back rate and motion at the snap, during snap motion rate, uh, Mike McDaniel is just, like, top right of that chart, like leading the way in both of those stats.

Uh, and, and those things just lead to efficient offense and efficient fantasy scoring, full stop.

So that's like a-- We have a mechanism here that we can say, "Oh, okay, this is going to translate over to another team, hopefully with easily the best quarterback that he has ever had the pleasure of working with." So I'm also extre- extremely excited about the Chargers.

Uh, Justin Herbert, even, uh, last year with, like, with Greg Roman, but, like, without the insane level of, like, just play-calling eliteness that McDaniel brings, uh, in four games with a healthy Joe Ault, he averaged over 22 fantasy points per game.

Uh, he, his .44 EPA per drop back would have led every quarterback over any of the past five seasons in that split.

Oof

You know, any concerns over losing a Hall of Famer in Mike Evans to start with? And then I guess we'll bleed that into kinda some Baker Mayfield talk this, this, uh, for this season.

season.Yeah.

So this offense does require some projection, some, like, leap of faith, uh, without Evans, of course, and also with Zach Robinson, who has been, like, an, an... just an extremely run-heavy coach.

Uh, he's been, yeah, like, one, one of the leaders in every, like, backfield related stat, rush attempts, all of that, uh, with Bijan Robinson.

Uh, the passing games have been kind of hit or miss, right? Uh, with the Falcons.

Of course, they've been highly concentrated, uh, really good for fantasy football with Drake London, Kyle Pitts last year, uh, but not necessarily, like, the highest volume, highest efficiency passing attacks.

But I, I think it's pretty easy to look at what Robinson's been saddled with, uh, with super old Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix, like, guys that can't really get under center, can't, uh, effectively run play action and kinda do all the fancy stuff that it seems like he wants to, uh, and then look at Baker Mayfield and say, "Well, this could just be a perfect marriage," because we have the signs of an incredibly efficient play caller with Zach Robinson.

What do you see with this offense, and who are some of the players we should be buying from this kind of play caller upgrade from Monken from Ca- Kevin Stefanski?

Um, where are you at on the Seahawks? Like, can they just replicate what they did last year? Can we just, you know, run it all back? Can everybody, uh, can they score points? Can the offensive line play well? Uh, what, what do you see with Brian Flory?

Yeah, I mean, the, the biggest overarching thing is, yeah, it's gonna be really hard to replicate what they did last year, and specifically what JSN did last year, uh, from a bunch of different angles that I can get into.

Uh, with Flory overall, yeah, I, I'd be lying if I didn't say that when I'm reading basically every Flory quote i- is like, "We're gonna have the same offense.

I'm not changing anything.

It'll be really similar to the one that just won the Super Bowl." Like, I don't blame the guy.

I don't really know what else you're going to say.

But I also just got the same, like, awful vibe that I did reading, uh, every Kevin Patulo quote last year c- when they [chuckles] were coming off a Super Bowl and he- Would not say he was gonna change anything significant.

So I'm definitely a little lower than most when it comes to the Giants.

Wow

... with how this has kind of worked out.

Uh, I did an entire video on this over on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel that you guys can go check out if you're curious and want the longer version of this explanation.

Uh, it, it was called, uh, "Are We Drafting Running Backs Wrong? Fantasy Football RB Strategy," uh, about a month ago, if you just scroll down a few videos on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel.

Uh, but yeah.

Basically, the tl;dr is all of these running backs on the screen right here, so Breece Hall, Travis Etienne, uh, Kyren Williams, Javonte Williams, Josh Jacobs especially, they are all in an archetype of running back that I have dubbed just your average workhorse.

So these guys, at, at least in terms of how they get their volume, are kind of in the middle, right? They are not these insanely elite pass catchers, or at least that's not what any of their usage was last year.

I'm, I'm very curious to hear how you would like to rank, uh, this or how you do rank this group of wide receivers.

And like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

Yeah, so right off the top, not saying that JSN is, like, going to suck and, like, not be a wide receiver one this year or whatever.

I just think round one, the wide receiver three overall is way too rich for a player from whom we should be expecting just real, like, really meaningful efficiency regression, offensive regression.

Just the more I look into the Seahawks this year and what Clint Kubiak just accomplished and what, uh, new OC Brian Fleury could accomplish, I, I just continue coming to the conclusion that yeah, yeah, JSN is extremely overpriced.

W- or just very optimistically priced, right? Uh, so yeah, up on the screen here we've got, uh, red zone targets that I'm just kind of talking about, where these are a really predictive stat.

Of course, it makes sense, right? You want wide receivers getting targeted in the red zone.

That's how they score touchdowns.

Is it enough to pay off his ADP?

So Ryan, what have, what have you found when digging into the wide receiver position? And how you doing today, man?

Hey, yeah, I'm, uh, doing great.

Uh, yeah, big, big apologies for the tank top, but it is extremely hot, uh, here in the northeastern United States.

So try- trying to stay cool, trying to make sure I can do a full show for you guys today without fainting.

Ah.

But yeah, in terms of wide receiver stats, uh, I'd say there are some similar themes at the wide receiver position compared to the running backs and the tight ends, for example.

Uh, that being that, yeah, one of the most predictive things is always going to be past fantasy production.

The yard per route rates are, are pretty good, but first down rates are a little low.

Ryan, who is your top deep sleeper going into the '26 season?

Yeah, let's just start off, get it out of the way, with Bashel Tootin.

Uh, I'm completely over the moon on Tootin.

I understand this kind of blew up in our faces last year, but I, I think now really is the time to buy in.

I- let's just get right into it.

The biggest, like, argument for Tootin is just the value of this Jaguars backfield, of any Liam Cohen backfield, right? Uh, if we look just over the last three seasons, the play callers that have had the most valuable fantasy backfields by expected fantasy points per game, it's a top seven list with all of the Mick Shanahan coaches pretty much.

It's the entire tree there.

See app for details.

Um, let's start with what did Marvin Harrison do when he played in games with Jacoby Brissett? Like, when he had competent quarterback play, what, what was his production and kind of can we use that as a baseline for what we should expect here in his third year in '26?

Yeah, he was much better than anyone seems to remember.

Uh, th- this is a player that I feel like does not just get that much hype in industry circles now.

I think there's an effect where people are not as willing to hype up players that have burned them in the past.

Uh, Marvin Harrison Jr. has never burned me in the past.

I've never been in on him really at any point up until now.

And, and now I'm kinda intrigued because, yeah, I look at last year in his three full games with Jacoby Brissett, he averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game, uh, that would be the wide receiver 11, on 18.7 expected fantasy points per game, that would be the wide receiver four.

What kind of efficiency boost should we be expecting from, you know, not just the Chargers passing attack, you know, as a whole, but how will it affect Ladd McConkie in his third season?

Um, so talk us through some of these stats that matter at tight end, what we should be looking for, and then we'll get into some of the specific player profiles.

Yeah, yardage market share is where I wanna start.

So for anyone unaware, it's, it's just the tight ends receiving yards divided by all of their team's total receiving yards, uh, in games that they were active for.

That's receiving yardage mar- yardage market share.

Uh, I think a pretty underrated stat, um, at, at all positions, but especially at tight end.

What it really tells you is if a tight end has a high receiving yardage market share, he's probably one of the top two options in his offense.

Uh, so th- that- that's like a kind of a heuristic that has been tested over time, that a ton of people have done studies on, that really shows, like, for fantasy football, you want to find a tight end that's one of the top two, uh, target options on his team.

So is he just clearly underrated this year, Ryan?