Raymond Smith

Okay, so my definition of competitive would be if the race gets to five or six points, which might not be exactly the same as the Democrat has a strong path to victory.

I think we're actually gonna end up with a lot of somewhat close congressional races this year, because basically there's about a 10 point shift to the left from what happened in 2024 and the way that republicans have drawn the congressional lines in the state in the sort of normal election year they're supposed to win all these districts by 14 or 15 points but because we have this 10-point national shift to the left i think we're actually going to end up with a lot of 53 47 52 48 54 46 sort of congressional races in the state this year when we really weren't supposed to have any single digit races ever so i think it's sort of uh worth watching richard ojeta in the ninth district raymond smith in the third district kimberly hardy in the seventh district i think they all have the potential to have like five point races or so and then it'll just be a question of whether enough resources come in for them in october either from their own fundraising or from national groups sort of looking to expand the map to get interested in those districts.

But I'll tell you, those are the kinds of districts that we have national groups polling now to see if there's something that can be done there to actually have a path to victory.

So I definitely agree with you that the first and the 11th are by far and away the most competitive districts in the state.

There's definitely more places sort of ending up getting investment in them than seemed like they were going to six months ago on the Democratic side with the U.S. House.

So We'll see if any of our other ones get into that or not.

But like in the specific instance of Raymond Smith, House Majority PAC, which is the main Democratic super PAC for the House, to pull from an expensive pollster as opposed to us, who's the bargain pollster, a few weeks ago sort of arguing that that district could be potentially competitive.

And they wouldn't be investing in serious polling in a district like that if they didn't think that there was something there.