Presidential election

The same day, he referred to Kamala Harris, the vice president, as Vice President Trump, and earlier in the day called the Ukrainian leader Zelenskyy President Putin.

In trying to understand the effects of political leadership on the stock market, the first good paper on this topic that I found was written by friend of the channel Victor Niederhofer along with Stephen Gibbs and Jim Bullock in a 1970 paper called Presidential Elections and the Stock Market.

In order to test the hypothesis that the market prefers Republican presidents, they looked at stock market returns on the day after the election results were announced and found that after a Republican win, the stock market rose an average of 1.12%, whereas after a Democrat win, the average next day return was minus 0.81%.

They found that market movements during the week and month following the election were qualitatively similar to those the day following the election, with the stock market rising after a Republican victory and declining after a Democratic victory.

They found no systematic differences in the performance of the market during Republican and Democratic administrations.

meaning that there was no long-term pattern in market movements to justify Wall Street's Republican bias.

The authors pointed out that there had only been 18 presidential elections since the beginning of the modern Dow Jones averages and that this was not enough for statistical significance.

Research by Trevor Genowine looked at the S&P 500 since its inception in 1957 and found that the S&P 500 achieved a median compound average growth rate of 9.3% under Democratic presidents and 10.2% under Republican presidents.

Okay, so it was

all outsiders just betting on the Brazilian presidential election.

Yes, although I have to throw out that Glenn Greenwald, who lives here in Brazil, was also doing, like, promoted posts for Cauchy or one of them recently.

What? Oh, my goodness.

He ran against Collor, right? That was the person he ran against?

Yeah, Collor.

That was the first presidential election after the Constitution.

That was a really close one as well.

I'm Amy Goodman.

We begin today's show in Brazil, where the presidential race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and far-right Senator Flavio Bolsonaro is headed to a runoff.

During the first round of voting Sunday, Bolsonaro received 47 percent of the vote.

Lula got 45 percent.