Perim

All right, Alexander, let's discuss the situation in the Middle East.

Let's talk about what's happening in Yemen and the Houthi advance, the Houthi control of the Mandeb Strait, the capture of Perim Island, the capture of Mocha.

Uh, they continue to advance.

MBS-

What's the latest you can tell us about all of that?

Well, the Houthis had took Mayun Island, also known as Perim, at the sort of end of last week.

And they've actually taken further islands.

There are several sort of small islands dotted through the southern Red Sea.

And as you said there, it may well go higher because up until now, the Saudis have to some extent probably been less impacted by the crisis in the Persian Gulf, the Iran war, than some of the other major oil producers, particularly countries like Iraq and Kuwait, who are right at the top of that gulf and therefore very much affected by the Straits of Hormuz.

Yes, and I think the market got very nervous last week when the Houthis started taking territory so rapidly.

So on Thursday, before they'd even taken that island of Mayun in the Bab al-Mandab, their advance was so fast and the collapse of the Saudi-backed forces of the internationally recognised government was so swift and they just sort of melted.

Some accused them of effectively running away from The market got very nervous and there was a more than 6% jump in oil prices in that day before they even took the bubble mendab.

The Houthis have achieved a significant strategic success against Israel by disrupting commercial shipping to the port of Eilat, according to jpost.com.

The group's advances along Yemen's western coast and control of Perim Island in the Bab al-Mandab Strait have heightened the threat to Red Sea shipping.

This development places Saudi Arabia in a similar strategic predicament, With Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly seeking US assistance, Israel and Saudi Arabia now share parallel interests in securing this vital maritime route, creating potential opportunities for a regional effort to restore shipping to Eilat.

Despite these advances, traffic through the strait continues, though the Houthis' new positions enhance their ability to monitor and selectively target vessels.

Okay.

Um, and then they pushed on, so by the end of last week they had taken, um, an island called Perim right in the middle of the Bab el-Mandab.

And the Bab el-Mandab is the sort of gateway up to the Suez Canal, so it's Indian Ocean, Gulf of Aden, and then the Bab el-Mandab going up into the Red Sea.

Mm-hmm.

Over the past week, Houthi forces have swept through positions held by Saudi-backed forces along Yemen's western coast.

They've taken effective control of nearly the entire Yemeni coastline along the Red Sea, including the historic port of Mocha, and seized territory on Perim Island inside the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

That puts the Houthis in an even stronger position around one of the most important shipping choke points in the world.

And Saudi Arabia is now responding with force.

Um, uh, and the, the, the lack of Houthi resistance was very notable and, you know, people were kind of, you know, uh, speculating on why, uh, and then in the coming days and about within forty-eight hours of the, you know, Marib and Al Jawf falling, it became very clear as to why, and, uh, most have assessed that the Houthis had shifted large amount of their forces to the south, um, and conducted a counterattack against forces, IRG and IRG-aligned forces that were, um, attacking northward there.

Uh, they soon took Mocha, and they began to continue along down the coastline where they've now taken, uh, Perim Island, and they've taken two other islands as well, um, that, that sit within the Bab al-Mandab Strait here.

And that's hugely important to note because obviously, uh, being an Iranian proxy, they also threaten that as well.

Um, uh, th- they, they now can directly threaten the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Obviously, like you said, they've made lightning advances, so obviously things like logistics, keeping forces fed, keeping for- forces supplied are gonna become a problem if some of these areas can get cut off.

We're beginning to see s- salience of advances here as well too by Yemeni government-aligned forces as well, um, where it, it's looking like in areas like Jabbal, um, uh, and the axes of advance that's kind of centered around Al Ghayl, I believe I'm pronouncing that correctly, are p- possibly creating a bit of a pocket of Houthi forces.

And if they can continue, if they do create pockets of Houthi forces and can continue to do that and be- possibly cut off the more southern areas all the way down to, uh, Perim Island as well, that would become a huge problem there.

Obviously, they were, the Houthis were able to take some of these islands because they cut off, um, Yemeni government forces, and up to, like, 5,000 Yemeni government forces were taken, uh, had to, were surrendered on some of these islands because they were, they were cut off and, and, uh, uh, out from, from outside supply lines and outside places where they could withdraw from.

In Yemen, Houthi forces swept down the Red Coast.

They captured the port city of Mokka on 10 September, then took the town of Dubab and a small volcanic island called Mayun.

Mayun sits in the middle of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and splits into two shipping channels.

Whoever holds it can watch and threaten every ship that passes.

The Houthis also took another island in the same push.

This will require a multi-divisional ground operation where you now occupy Houthilandia, as I like to call it, and root out the cave structures, root out where there are any ship missiles.

And then you bring the godda- When you get down there and you think you've found enough, maybe you could secretly and quietly do an amphibious landing on Mayun Island, or a para drop on Mayun Island.

If the Saudis were to call me today, I'd be saying, "I'm sorry, you're gonna have to go to war or you're gonna have to surrender.

You decide.