One week they've got one problem, then the next week they've got a completely different one.

Absolutely.

I mean, yes, New Zealand can improve because their batting hasn't really peaked yet at all.

There's plenty of players in there who could do better.

Um, look, I'm not as down on England as last week because they've got Stokes, Atkinson, and Smith back, um, which is more experienced, but I, I do just think New Zealand are the more professional side.

They're better equipped, and they shouldn't really be outsiders.

And England really haven't convinced consistently at all for a couple of years for all sorts of reasons.

I was gonna talk to you about shorting runs, but you just, you just go.

Paul, anything on the pitch for you?

Yeah, yeah, lots actually.

So looking through the games here during the study sample, so they're all results, but five of the six matches went to the final day, two at the final session.

Now that might put you on to the people think, well, you know, big runs, get on the draw.

Personally, I can't have it because if you look at how many overs were bowled and there's no rainfall cost this week, if we were getting 90 a day, only one out of six matches makes day five.

And you look at the run rate that is going on here, seven of the last eight innings here were above four or over, five of the eight were four and a half plus.

So I think it's a session run, especially for Sunshine, it's massively overs on session runs.

So I wouldn't be steaming into action on the player performance or things like that, because it's a completely different game, this.

Paul, full disclosure, you've laid England already.

Yes, uh, at 1.81 for several reasons.

I'm completely on board.

I mean, first point is the weather forecast isn't great, and while I agree with you completely that that would be likely as to produce a result, in running, you shouldn't expect the draw mark- draw price to be rational.

People overreact to rain always, and it's so easy to see that Thursday, which looked terrible when I looked on Met Office earlier, doesn't have much play, maybe a delayed start.

So I can see the draw plunging and, and going off odds against anyway.

But then take that out of it, New Zealand are clearly value for all the reasons you said.

Um, where are the odds going? Where aren't they going? What have you got in terms of trades and strats?

[laughs]

I'm just not giving up.

I'm just...

I'm not arguing with you.

I'm not saying you're wrong, right? It's been a disaster.

It has been...

The last few games have been horrific, Rich, but-I do think we've got to guard against recency bias.

Let's go straight to a pitch report with Paul.

Paul, let's go to that pitch report please of best bet angles.

Okay.

So small ground, Wankhede.

Um, median over under sixes line is 195.5.

Although I'd note that this year, 195 is the lowest first innings out in, in four, and the seventh lowest of eight, seventh highest out of eight scores this year.

So it's, it's going better than it has, was last year.

Median sixes line is 19.5, so no big angle on the market there.

... um, a- about that.