Nowadays, it's very hard to find very good and reliable data sources for what's actually true and happening in the world.

It's very hard to know if, uh, what I'm seeing on Twitter, is it right or is it bots or who is writing this? What prediction markets do is they kind of like take away the noise, and you can really look at a, like, forecast that's come from millions of people putting money on the line and putting money where their mouth is to really see, "I believe this is going to happen.

I have a lot of conviction," and, and kind of aggregating all of that to see, to see the future.

So even if people are not trading in the markets, actually, the most important part of these markets is the single point of data, the price that comes from these markets, which can benefit anyone, and I think that's the most important.

If there's one thing people know about prediction markets, I really hope they, they know that if they wanna know anything about the future, it is the best way to get a correct, unbiased forecast.

And you can see-

[upbeat music] Hey, everybody.

Uh, my name is Paul Bragiel.

What I'm really well known for probably here in Silicon Valley is that I was an ear- early investor and advisory board member to Uber.

I joined the company when there was less than 10 people working there.

Uh, the valuation was puny.

[laughs] So it was an amazing, you know, exit, and seeing that company rise is, you know, one of the highlights of my career.

Consult a healthcare professional if symptoms persist.

And you can see-

Hey everybody, uh, my name is Paul Bragiel.

What I'm really well known for, probably here in Silicon Valley, is that I was an ear- early investor and advisory board member to Uber.

I joined the company when there was less than ten people working there.

Uh, the valuation was puny.

[laughs] So it was an amazing, you know, exit, and seeing that company rise is, you know, one of the highlights of my career.

I made good money being an entrepreneur.

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Changing strategies and letting go of people in order to adjust for a longer period of time without any growth of a more mature company.

And so losing people from your team because of that is really, really hard.

The way I describe it to people, it actually just felt like another Wednesday.

You just take it on the chin and are like, "Okay, now I need to solve this problem." So you have to maintain an illusion of competence and vision where like, "Hey, this is not a problem.

This is just a little bump on the road.

I know exactly how we're gonna solve it." It's challenging because as a founder, you know that a lot of the plans and thoughts I had very early on are assumptions.

See visible.com for details.

What I'm saying when I say ideas don't matter is that everybody has the same ideas, right? It's like you think of an idea, and then, like, two weeks later, you hear somebody's building it, right? It's like the world is kind of coming together around the same ideas.

Like, "Hey, I have a really cool idea.

Flying cars," right? Yeah, that's a great idea.

That doesn't fucking matter, right? How you build a fucking flying car is what matters.

Not like, "Oh, yeah.

Oh, it's a really cool idea to send a rocket." Yeah, great.

See visible.com for details.

What I'm saying when I say ideas don't matter is that everybody has the same ideas, right? It's like you think of an idea, and then like two weeks later, you hear somebody's building it, right? It's like the world is kinda coming together around the same ideas.

Like, hey, I have a really cool idea.

Flying cars, right? Yeah, that's a great idea.

That doesn't fucking matter, right? How are you gonna build a fucking flying car is what matters.

Not like, oh yeah, oh, it's a really cool idea to send a rocket.

Yeah, great.