Pacific decadal oscillation

The atmosphere and planetary scale flow acts on various periodicities.

So you have the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, you have the Madden-Julian Oscillation, you have ENSO, the El Nino Southern Oscillation, which again, the Southern Oscillation works on a multi-decadal timeframe.

So all of these interesting features in the climate system can act to amplify and de-amplify large-scale flow, and that impacts weather patterns.

So just with climate change and Arctic amplification across the high latitudes, with the loss of sea ice warming three times as fast as anywhere else on the globe, mid-latitudes warming as well, we're already relaxing the thermal gradient between here and the high latitudes, which has implications on the jet stream.

But it was a very mild, friendly mild winter.

So anyway... we uh i really think it will be a milder than normal winter in spite of the cold pacific decadal oscillation which and that may slip to warm as we go in the time because that is starting to show signs of weakening a little bit

well it seems like that's all our time thanks for coming on to the show hugh

yeah we'll be back every uh every week now i don't plan on going away like that for a while so i should be back for a while and it's great talking to you both

So typically, you look at 30 years or longer to really make a statement about, um, climate change.

Um, at the same time, you're going to have years where, yes, it's a strong El Niño or some other large scale atmospheric phenomenon like the North Atlantic Oscillation or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or one of my favorites, the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

[laughs]

You know, all these random things that are out there.

Uh, it goes forward and is totally checkable.

It was actually done before the end of 2025, and we had a, a very sharp drop in the PDO, in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, um, which wasn't expected, and it still coped with that.

Now, it's not perfect, but it's more perfect than anything else out there is what I'm claiming.

And so we got on HadCRUT northern hemisphere, in there, those curves, we got an r-value regression of 0.87. Well, I wasn't happy because [sighs] living in England, I know how the Met Office fiddle.