October surprise

But here we are in October.

And what do they say about October? The October surprise.

I think we're starting to get some of them.

Yeah, I'm hearing that and I'm hearing the reset as well and stuff like that.

This is episode number 520.

We're entitling it The Inflation Trap, War, Rising Prices, and the October Surprise.

Is America heading towards another inflation crisis? Certainly feels like it when we got the latest CPI numbers today.

We're gonna dive into it in today's episode.

How much worse are things going to get? And how much of this economic pain can be traced directly back to the disastrous illegal war that the United States and Israel have unleashed against Iran? Meanwhile, Social Security recipients are getting a three-point-six percent cost of living increase next year.

But is that gonna be nearly enough to keep up with rising prices? And with the November midterm elections now less than three weeks away and Republicans facing mounting political pressure, there's another question we need to consider.

Should we be preparing for an October surprise? We've got plenty to discuss today.

We'll begin with the latest inflation numbers and a troubling new report from the International Energy Agency.

... uh, but he also was talking about, uh, energy deals with Russia.

So President Trump is insisting an energy ceasefire is in place between Russia and Ukraine.

This despite-

No, no, no, it's not

He, he, this is, this is exactly right.

This, this could have picked up from Canada and more, uh, that would have made much more of a meaningful impact here.

Uh, and I mean, th- they, they, they, they sort of to, to, they put their cards on the table here, where there was negotiations, talks between Americans and Ukrainians in the last few weeks, officials, a- and, and basically, Uk- Zelenskyy has said, "We'll do an energy ceasefire, but Russia has to stop, too." And Ukraine said, "If they stop hitting our electrical grid, we'll stop targeting-

Yeah

I think he makes the argument better than I am.

But let me respond to your question about the October surprise.

I mean, I, I, I've warned in pages of the New York Post now for a couple of months that there would be an October surprise and we needed to look out for it, but that October surprise would be the one the Iranians would be launching, not the United States or Israel.

And so you, the attacks against Saudi Arabia, you could argue, are part of an October surprise.

What the Houthis are doing in the Red Sea is an Iranian-backed effort, again, to spike oil prices and diminish President Trump's chances at the ballot box, as Suzanne said.

That could be the October surprise.

Is it in Netanyahu's interest to launch an October surprise against the Iranians? And if he does, you had asked earlier, what does that look like? I think the Israelis believe that targeting energy infrastructure, going after the next 20, 30, 50, 70 members of the Iranian regime, they've got a very rich and deep target bank that they're eager to use.

But the real question, again, is, is President Trump willing to green-light an Israeli strike right before the November midterms? And I'm skeptical that he would.

The timing of this submission coincides with the World Medical Association's General Assembly, where representatives from the Israel Medical Association are participating.

Shifting focus to international dynamics, the concept of an October surprise is resurfacing as a potential factor in the upcoming US elections.

This term, historically referring to outside interventions capable of influencing election outcomes, is now being discussed in relation to Iran.

Theories suggest Tehran could engineer events such as new attacks on neighboring countries to drive up oil prices or internal unrest with the aim of impacting the US presidential race.

Well, I think also, I mean, the timing is funny that Trump is out there talking about how Iran should nuke San Diego, and then the Secretary of Defense is out there, um, huffin' and puffin', uh, [laughs] with some folks that are training there.

But I do think this reporting from The Atlantic so far, and I'm sure it will become more widespread, that the Trump administration is considering military action in Iran, you know, very soon as their October surprise to try to get us on war footing mode, is a very big deal, and I certainly wouldn't put it past them.

You know, the price tag of gas is not fitting with the amount of oil that's actually getting out through the Strait of Hormuz.

Now, it's still hovering about 30 to 40% above where you would expect it to be, and that is because of how much it costs to actually get the oil out.

And I would imagine that Iran is about to get very desperate in terms of maintaining an upper hand, and that the Trump administration, likewise, is about to get very desperate as they see writing on the wall for at the very least, you know, a good night for Democrats in the House, but potentially, you know, even in the Senate.

Yeah, I've been thinking a lot about ...

I th- You know, you always have to ask yourself what could go right, and I've been asking myself what could go right in the, in, in this war, and I think there's a decent chance that something could go very right and be sort of an A, a real, a true October surprise.

If you look at the amount of oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, I think it's almost back to pre-war levels.

Next up, Lisa, pronoun she, her, hers.

"Dearest Beans Queens and all who care for them, I'm so excited to head downtown DC Tuesday for training for the October surprise," yay, "thanks to hearing about it from your guest a while back, Cliff Cash.

I must be a part of whatever it will take to turn our country around.

Thank you both, and Cliff, for the inspiration.

[laughs]

Oh, my God.

And then of course, we have the, uh, ad for the October surprise, which is happening right now.

We're in the middle of it, October 6th through 8th, uh, with Cliff Cash over there.

I wonder whether it would really change the direction of travel politically, though, given that the public's been so sceptical about the war from the outset.

And I think you're right that the public's developed a certain resistance to October surprises relative to the late 60s and 70s.

I'm not sure I can think of one that would be a game changer at this point, but maybe my colleagues can come up with one.

So HR, the school of thought is that something terrorism related will happen before the midterm election.

He's been pretty explicit about it.

And and obviously what he's been trying to do is manage expectations associated with the war in such a way that he keeps fuel prices as low as possible.

Gentlemen, do we expect any Democratic October surprises between now and Election Day or as things seem to be trending in their direction? Are they just going to let the election play out?

But if you're a democratic strategist, you've got a gift that keeps on giving, which is affordability.