Noah Barkin

I wish.

There is a number of very important directors and Noah Barkin included in the team who also joined our Europe Future Forum last year and we're very grateful for the insights and the exchange that we can have with you as a team at Rodium, one of the most excellent team positioned to analyze and to understand what's going on in the relationship between Europe, China and the rest of the world, in a way, in the global system where economic warfare and economic statecraft is now being pursued by so many actors.

This is a new world, I think, for many in capitals, but also in Brussels.

So, Camille, welcome.

We now have a broad European consensus on how to respond to China.

This is extremely important as we head into the most consequential few weeks in the EU-China relations in years, said Noah Barkin, an analyst with Rodem Group in Berlin.

The next few months will be extremely challenging.

The EU can expect Beijing to retaliate if it presses ahead with new trade cases and new instruments.

State-backed newspaper Global Times reported today, citing an unnamed Chinese observer as saying that China could respond with a strong policy toolbox that includes anti-discrimination probes, security investigations into industrial and supply chains, and could also look into the impact of foreign subsidies.

Global Times linked the warning to an article by Rhodium Group's senior advisor on Europe-China ties, Noah Barkin, who said Germany and France were finalizing a joint paper this week to call on the European Commission to fast-track development of an instrument that mirrors the United States Section 301 unfair trade practices provision to deter China in the EU market.

And elsewhere, Japan's factory output unexpectedly fell in August from the previous month.

According to data released by the Ministry of Economy, industrial output shrank one point seven percent in August from the previous month compared to the median market forecast for a one point seven percent rise in a Reuters poll.

Uh, but I think the debate has changed.

And, and structurally, like I'm, I'm no expert on European politics, uh, my colleague Noah Barkin follows this in, in greater detail, but, um, we do think that more safeguard measures are coming.

It's just a question of their magnitude and how...

The critical question is sort of does...

However, Europe's ability to respond remains uncertain.

Analyst Noah Barkin argues that Germany's support will be essential because proposed EU safeguards require backing from a qualified majority of member states.

Political instability surrounding Chancellor Friedrich Merz could therefore weaken the emerging European consensus and benefit Beijing.

Commercial ties are also deepening despite the confrontations.