Do you see Germany's approach to China changing in meaningful ways, not just the way Germany talks about China, but what it's actually doing?

Well, I think it's too early to say.

I do think we've seen a major shift in rhetoric.

Merz, as I said, during his first year, focused on everything but China.

Then he went to China in February.

I would say this wasn't a great trip.

I think it sort of showed a lack of real I think he mentioned all the areas of concern, but also I think there was a bit of, you know, he came back and he was awed by, you know, his visit to Unitary Robotics and came back and said some pretty strange things about which suggested he thinks Germany should be a bit more like China.

So has the greater uncertainty about U.S. policy really led some European governments to be more supportive of accommodating to Beijing or concern about not wanting to have friction with both China and the US at one time? Or has it really reinforced concerns about China's policies because Europe is sort of more on its own? Well, I think

How big an issue, Declan has alluded to that, how big an issue is that for the relationship?

Well, first of all, thanks for the invitation.

Very good to be here.

I think on the roller coaster, as Alicia sort of mentioned, we've been on the downhill part of the roller coaster for some time.

And we have had some perhaps moments of where the roller coaster has been going up, but there haven't been that many of them.

And we are coming to a point, and we can get into this later, where I think the economic relationship is getting to the point where it's becoming very difficult for Europe to maintain its current policy, which has gone out of its way to be...

European leaders have gone out of their way to engage with China.

Maybe talk us through some of the dynamic in the discussion between the coalition partners, between government and industry on what position Germany should take vis-a-vis China.

Could you talk a bit about what a China shock means in this context and how it might impact the domestic industries of EU member states?

Sure.

Well, I think the term China shock comes from what I think the US experience after China's entry into the WTO in 2001, which was really sort of an outsourcing of jobs, which devastated parts of US industry.

think this china shock and there's a debate about whether shock is the right term because shock sort of implies surprise but i think a lot of people saw this coming so in a way it's not a surprise i think it is a shock in terms of the impact that it's having on the european economy and european industry but i've also heard it described as sleepwalking 2.0 so Europe sort of sleepwalking, as it did with Russia and the reliance on Russian energy, doing the same with China.

So there's a dispute about whether shock is the right word.

But this China shock, if we want to call it that, I think is very different than what the US experienced 25 years ago.

As I said earlier, China's moved up the value chain.

So as the EU faces nearly three more years of Trump and the continuing rise of China, what adjustments in its policy towards both powers do you think needs to happen in order to best prepare it for future developments in the competition?

What impact has Trump's return to the White House, and specifically his tariff policies, had on the EU's triangular relationship with the US and China economically?

Well, I think there are a few things to mention there.

One, Trump started with Liberation Day roughly a year ago, beginning of April twenty twenty-five, when Trump imposed broad-based tariffs on many US trading partners.

And following that, there was an escalation with China.

I think US tariffs on China reached a hundred and forty-five percent at one point.

And then there were talks between the US and China, and the two sides were able to de-escalate and US tariffs came down.

But that did force China or encourage China to hit back.

Could you talk a bit about what a China shock means in this context and how it might impact the domestic industries of EU member states?

What impact has Trump's return to the White House, and specifically his tariff policies, had on the EU's triangular relationship with the US and China economically?

Well, I think there are a few things to mention there.

One, Trump started with Liberation Day roughly a year ago, beginning of April twenty twenty five, when Trump imposed broad-based tariffs on many US trading partners.

And following that, there was an escalation with China.

I think US tariffs on China reached a hundred and forty-five percent at one point.

And then there were talks between the US and China, and the two sides were able to deescalate and US tariffs came down.

But that did force China or encourage China to hit back.

Could you talk a bit about what a China shock means in this context and how it might impact the domestic industries of EU member states?

Mm

... has been in China four times in the pa- little over three years.

Um, I, I mean, I th- I think Germany is the key.

Germany has the biggest, uh, obviously the biggest economy in Europe.

Germany has the deepest, uh, e- economic relationship traditionally with Europe, uh, with China.

And, and, and G- uh, Germany is also, uh, I, I think, in the eye of this China shock storm, uh, that Europe is experiencing because Germany is a manufacturing-based economy.

It is feeling the pain from, uh, China's, uh, uh, competitive, growing competitiveness in, in, in manufacturing.

Wh- where does China stand in all this? How does it see the sort of global distribution of power and responsibility?

Is that the reason, Noah, you think that, you know, when you say people have been disappointed about Chinese investment, is it, is, is that same kind of theme going on?

I think every country has different experiences.

I think Poland has had a few, uh, bad experiences with, uh, Chinese projects.

Uh, I think we've also seen a sharp rise in the trade deficits of Eastern European countries with China.

So, uh, a complaint that I often hear from the Poles is that their, uh, exports to China have not increased significantly.

On the other hand, Chinese exports to, to, to Poland and other countries in Eastern Europe have risen quite significantly.

So, so this is, uh, it's disappointment about, uh, the lack of investments or problems with the investments that, uh, these countries have seen from China.

But Noah, what I wanted to ask you was, is it fair to say that this, this impact of the Russian invasion goes across the entire continent such that France and Germany could be advocating for even a closer relationship with China if it wasn't for the fact that China was so ambivalent on the re- invasion and has been so, so far?