Natural experiment

So what are you watching in this regard?

So I'd frame it as a natural experiment that we're trying to do.

So the new mission, if I understand it correctly, it has approved something like 12 commercial projects across six states.

I think 1.65 lakh crores of investment.

UP has got something, Odisha has got, Bhubaneswar, Punjab, etc.

So we now have chip investment that's landing in states that are already very high on the index, on the innovation index that we are looking at.

And states that are very low on it are also getting it at the same time right and this would be a good natural experiment right because you have on one side states that are doing very high on innovation as well as states that are doing very low on it being serviced by these funds right so in within five to eight years maybe we would be able to see whether that plant creates a local ecosystem or not now what we could watch probably is whether local suppliers would emerge or whether everything it just gets imported and the plant is basically just assembling things right uh so a lot of things right that supplier layer will include chemicals gases precision components maybe even machine tools etc right all of that And also, we should watch what happens with the human resource that's employed, right? The labor.

Do these engineers who probably will leave the plant in a few years, will they start firms nearby or do they leave the state and come back to the known clusters, right? So there's some work that was done on Detroit.

That announcement led to an unexpected, sharp and salient increase in mortgage rates.

So that sudden shock served as a kind of natural experiment?

Exactly.

What makes it particularly powerful is the UK's institutional setup.

However, sometimes experiments occur naturally.

Two peoples who are culturally or ethnically similar with similar geography might have radically different systems of government.

Such natural experiments have occurred in North and South Korea, China and Taiwan, and East and West Germany.

And the same is true with the island of Hispaniola and the nations of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Before the arrival of Europeans, the island of Hispaniola was governed by the Taino Confederacy, consisting of five sovereign chiefdoms.

Heading.

Dworkesh Patel realizes he ran a natural experiment.

Dwarkesh Patel also wrote the best four civilians explainer I've seen of the whole thing, which you should read if you haven't.

I want to focus on one aspect here.