Narodowy Bank Polski

So the short answer is that it doesn't change my view, but it does make me more cautious.

So when I think about the key component of my view for a downtrend in PLN Czech, a key driver has been monetary policy divergence between Poland and the Czech Republic, and this idea that the Czech National Bank is likely to be more hawkish than the National Bank of Poland.

Now, the upside surprise in Poland's headline CPI means that most likely Governor Glapiński is going to backtrack on his dovishness at the upcoming meeting this month.

But I don't think this headline CPI number is enough to change my view that most likely the National Bank of Poland is going to be holding rates for the foreseeable future.

And the other thing to, to keep in mind is also that Poland's rates curve, the market is still pricing hikes.

There's about sixty basis point of hikes priced in over the next twelve months, and if they underdeliver, then that can potentially weigh on the Polish zloty relative to the Czech koruna.

Now, going forward, there's a couple of things that are worth watching.

On the economic front, uh, we have August core CPI for Poland, which is gonna be out on September sixteenth.