Mutual Defense Treaty

Now it's reaching a point wherein this will just continue to escalate, and ...

But, but we know that the Chi- the Chinese will not, will not, are not, uh, silly enough to, to, uh, to really do anything that will, uh, make, uh, the United States, for instance, have to invo- to come to the support of the, the Philippines, uh, via the mutual defense treaty as well as the other allies, right? So they, uh, I think they're doing everything, even including that, including, uh, verbal provocations and, and actions short of, short of actual military action.

Uh, uh, up to what point, uh, we don't really know, but I have a feeling that whatever happens, they will, they will, they will escalate the, the, the pressure, will not, uh, relent to military action, and I don't think that, uh, the Philippines will be the, the trigger.

Uh, probably Taiwan will, but, but not the Philippines.

Mm-hmm.

So you could argue that the Mutual Defense Treaty with the US will apply there.

Mm-hmm.

And Mutual Defense Treaty doesn't mean that America will just drop bombs on China.

Right.

But- It just means there's a b- gonna be a consultative process, there's gonna be a collective diplomatic response.

Now, any instance of two powerful nations confronting each other in such an aggressive manner is concerning.

But what ramps up concerns further is the fact that this can't be considered a simple China-Philippines confrontation due to this: the US and Philippines's Mutual Defense Treaty.

The Philippines used to be a US territory, and as part of the unwinding of that relationship, the two nations signed this treaty that essentially stipulated that if anyone attacked the US, the Philippines would help the US defend, and if anyone attacked the Philippines, the US would help the Philippines defend.

That treaty is still active, and all indications suggest that the two nations intend to follow through on its terms, as leaders from both have reiterated its active status in public time and time again.

And that spurred the inclusion of this concerningly direct line.

Quote, "An armed attack in the Pacific, to include anywhere in the South China Sea, on either Philippine or U.S. armed forces, which includes both nations' coast guards, aircraft or public vessels, would invoke mutually defense commitments under Article 4 and Article 5 of the MDT." What has happened continuously over the past few months were attacks in the South China Sea on Philippine ships from their coast guard.

The only facet of these incidents that kept them from invoking the mutual defense treaty is that water cannons do not cross the threshold of what is considered an armed attack.

Yet, the fact that the U.S. was just one word away from being pulled into a military conflict with China is undoubtedly concerning.

A big part of the new US military aid for the Philippines that has increased in recent years, especially, you know, under the Biden administration, has been, you know, stuff like this for the South China Sea, uh, which is a potential flashpoint for a war between the US and China.

The US says that, you know, this is something that they, they started saying, I forget exactly when, a few years ago, um, that any, uh, attacks on Ch- Philippine vessels in the South China Sea would invoke the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty.

Um, and you know, we see these...

Th- there's a video here, I think I covered it, yeah, I did, uh, of one of these kind of, uh, skirmishes that happened.

The Philippines and the United States are treaty allies.

Washington has repeatedly stated that the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty applies to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, and aircraft, including Philippine Coast Guard vessels in the South China Sea.

That sentence changes the strategic calculation.

It does not mean every collision, water cannon incident, or blocked resupply mission automatically brings the United States into a war.

First, anticipate continued calibrated maritime gray zone pressure by the China Coast Guard in the South China Sea.

This will be specifically designed to test the limits of the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty without triggering it.

Right, the anaconda squeeze.

Precisely.